Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Carson Kelly

matchup for Jack Flaherty

305th out of 436 (Worst 30%)

Jack Flaherty

matchup for Carson Kelly

160th out of 567 (Best 29%)

Strong advantage for Kelly

Carson Kelly has a 34.3% chance of reaching base vs Jack Flaherty, which is 1.5% higher than Kelly's typical expectations, and 0.1% higher than batters facing Flaherty.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	34.3%	23.6%	3.8%	4.9%	14.9%	10.7%	19.3%
Kelly	+1.5	+0.6	+0.8	-0.1	-0.1	+0.9	+0.2
Flaherty	+0.1	+0.3	+0.2	-0.3	+0.4	-0.2	-3.5

Carson Kelly is worse vs right-handed pitching. Jack Flaherty is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Kelly has a D grade vs this particular release point.

Jack Flaherty throws a 4-seam fastball 44% of the time. Carson Kelly has a C grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

44%

Slider (R)

27%

Kn-Curve (R)

18%

21% of Jack Flaherty's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Carson Kelly has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 21%

+2%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Edge Painter 17%

Mid Challenge 11%

Chaser 6%

Weak Challenge 8%

Meatball 6%

Non-Competitive 12%

-1%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

45% of Jack Flaherty's pitches are classified as Breaking Pitches, which is 14% higher than the MLB average. Carson Kelly has a D+ grade against this type of pitch from right handers.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Breaking (R) 45%

+14%

Medium Break 20%

+11%

11.5% of Carson Kelly's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 5.2% lower than the league average. Jack Flaherty strikes out 20.5% of the batters he faces, which is 5.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Strikeout -5.2% +5.8% 4%

Walk +0.3% -1.5% 38%

In Play +5.0% -4.3% 39%

On Base -1.8% -2.0% 31%

Hit -2.1% -0.5% 14%

Single -1.2% +0.0% 13%

2B / 3B -1.3% -0.3% 3%

Home Run +0.4% -0.2%

35.2% of Carson Kelly's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 0.8% higher than the league average. Jack Flaherty induces Standard Grounders at a 36.3% rate, which is 1.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.7% -0.2% 34%

Standard Grounder +0.8% +1.9% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.5% -1.5% 14%

Low Screamer +1.0% +1.6% 9%

Rising Liner -1.8% +0.7% 4%

Maybe Homer 0.0% -0.3% 3%

Likely Homer -0.6% +0.1% 1%

No Doubter -0.2% -0.3% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.6% -1.3% 3%

Pop up +1.4% -0.8%

21.0% of Carson Kelly's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 3.3% lower than the league average. 21.5% of batted balls allowed by Jack Flaherty are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +5.8% +1.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph -1.6% +2.0% 18%

87 to 93 mph -0.8% +0.5% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.0% -1.3% 24%

Above 100 mph -3.3% -2.8%

13.9% of Carson Kelly's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.5% higher than the league average. 12.2% of batted balls allowed by Jack Flaherty are hit at this angle, which is 0.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%