Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Carson Kelly

matchup for Griffin Canning

341st out of 436 (Worst 22%)

Griffin Canning

matchup for Carson Kelly

240th out of 567 (Best 43%)

Strong advantage for Kelly

Carson Kelly has a 33.5% chance of reaching base vs Griffin Canning, which is 0.7% higher than Kelly's typical expectations, and 0.4% higher than batters facing Canning.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	33.5%	21.9%	3.1%	5.0%	13.9%	11.6%	16.1%
Kelly	+0.7	-1.1	+0.1	-0.1	-1.0	+1.8	-3.0
Canning	+0.4	+0.2	+0.3	+0.0	-0.1	+0.2	-5.4

Carson Kelly is worse vs right-handed pitching. Griffin Canning is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Kelly has a C+ grade vs this particular release point.

Griffin Canning throws a 4-seam fastball 39% of the time. Carson Kelly has a C grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

39%

Slider (R)

27%

Changeup (R)

21%

Curve (R)

11%

14% of Griffin Canning's pitches are classified as Non-Competitive, which is 1% higher than the MLB average. Carson Kelly has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Non-Competitive 14%

+1%

Likely Ball 20%

+1%

Meatball 7%

+0%

Weak Challenge 8%

+0%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Mid Challenge 11%

Chaser 6%

Strong Challenge 5%

-1%

Edge Painter 17%

-1%

38% of Griffin Canning's pitches are classified as Medium Slow Velocity, which is 24% higher than the MLB average. Carson Kelly has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Slow Velo 38%

+24%

Offspeed (R) 21%

+9%

Medium Break 28%

+9%

11.5% of Carson Kelly's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 5.2% lower than the league average. Griffin Canning strikes out 14.3% of the batters he faces, which is 1.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Strikeout -5.2% -1.9% 4%

Walk +0.3% +0.3% 38%

In Play +5.0% +1.6% 39%

On Base -1.8% -0.8% 31%

Hit -2.1% -1.1% 14%

Single -1.2% -0.9% 13%

2B / 3B -1.3% -0.7% 3%

Home Run +0.4% +0.6%

35.2% of Carson Kelly's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 0.8% higher than the league average. Griffin Canning induces Standard Grounders at a 31.2% rate, which is 3.2% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.7% -0.3% 34%

Standard Grounder +0.8% -3.2% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.5% +1.2% 14%

Low Screamer +1.0% +0.6% 9%

Rising Liner -1.8% -0.2% 4%

Maybe Homer 0.0% -0.8% 3%

Likely Homer -0.6% +0.6% 1%

No Doubter -0.2% +0.6% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.6% +2.3% 3%

Pop up +1.4% -0.7%

21.0% of Carson Kelly's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 3.3% lower than the league average. 25.9% of batted balls allowed by Griffin Canning are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +5.8% +0.3% 21%

75 to 86 mph -1.6% -2.3% 18%

87 to 93 mph -0.8% -0.8% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.0% +1.2% 24%

Above 100 mph -3.3% +1.6%

13.9% of Carson Kelly's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.5% higher than the league average. 12.5% of batted balls allowed by Griffin Canning are hit at this angle, which is 1.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -0.4% -1.2% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.2% -1.0% 8%

1 to 6° +1.1% 0.0% 18%

7 to 18° -4.0% -1.6% 15%

19 to 28° -0.5% -2.5% 11%

29 to 38° +2.5% +1.1% 7%

39 to 50° -0.6% +0.8% 8%

Above 50° +2.2% +4.4%

Carson Kelly has 4 plate appearances against Griffin Canning in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 4 with a strikeout.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.12	0.00	0.01	0.12			0.031

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-09-28	Groundout			3%	97%
2024-09-28	GIDP			8%	92%
2023-06-30	Strikeout
2023-06-30	Pop Out				99%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine Log InSubscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe