Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Carson Kelly

matchup for Aaron Civale

365th out of 436 (Worst 17%)

Aaron Civale

matchup for Carson Kelly

365th out of 564 (Worst 35%)

Moderate advantage for Kelly

Carson Kelly has a 31.0% chance of reaching base vs Aaron Civale, which is 1.8% lower than Kelly's typical expectations, and 1.5% higher than batters facing Civale.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	31.0%	22.0%	3.4%	4.1%	14.4%	9.0%	16.7%
Kelly	-1.8	-1.0	+0.4	-0.9	-0.5	-0.8	-2.4
Civale	+1.5	+0.5	+0.3	-0.2	+0.4	+1.1	-4.7

Carson Kelly is worse vs right-handed pitching. Aaron Civale is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Kelly has a B grade vs this particular release point.

Aaron Civale throws a Cutter 32% of the time. Carson Kelly has an F grade against right-handed Cutters

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Cutter (R)

32%

Sinker (R)

21%

Curve (R)

20%

4-Seam (R)

11%

Slider (R)

10%

21% of Aaron Civale's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Carson Kelly has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 21%

+2%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Strong Challenge 5%

Weak Challenge 8%

Meatball 6%

Mid Challenge 10%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

20% of Aaron Civale's pitches are classified as Extreme Drop, which is 15% higher than the MLB average. Carson Kelly has a D- grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Drop 20%

+15%

Medium Break 24%

+15%

Extreme Slow Velo 16%

+11%

Fastball (R) 64%

+10%

11.5% of Carson Kelly's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 5.2% lower than the league average. Aaron Civale strikes out 16.0% of the batters he faces, which is 0.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Strikeout -5.2% +0.4% 4%

Walk +0.3% -1.3% 38%

In Play +5.0% +1.0% 39%

On Base -1.8% -0.9% 31%

Hit -2.1% +0.5% 14%

Single -1.2% 0.0% 13%

2B / 3B -1.3% +0.3% 3%

Home Run +0.4% +0.1%

35.2% of Carson Kelly's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 0.8% higher than the league average. Aaron Civale induces Standard Grounders at a 34.5% rate, which is 0.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.7% -0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder +0.8% +0.1% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.5% -0.7% 14%

Low Screamer +1.0% -1.3% 9%

Rising Liner -1.8% +1.8% 4%

Maybe Homer 0.0% -1.1% 3%

Likely Homer -0.6% +0.2% 1%

No Doubter -0.2% +0.1% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.6% -0.7% 3%

Pop up +1.4% +1.8%

21.0% of Carson Kelly's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 3.3% lower than the league average. 25.0% of batted balls allowed by Aaron Civale are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +5.8% +0.4% 21%

75 to 86 mph -1.6% +1.9% 18%

87 to 93 mph -0.8% +0.0% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.0% -3.0% 24%

Above 100 mph -3.3% +0.7%

13.9% of Carson Kelly's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.5% higher than the league average. 11.7% of batted balls allowed by Aaron Civale are hit at this angle, which is 0.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%