Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Carson Kelly

matchup for Zach Eflin

191st out of 436 (Best 45%)

Zach Eflin

matchup for Carson Kelly

469th out of 567 (Worst 17%)

Leans in favor of Kelly

Carson Kelly has a 28.5% chance of reaching base vs Zach Eflin, which is 4.3% lower than Kelly's typical expectations, and 1.0% lower than batters facing Eflin.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	28.5%	21.7%	3.0%	4.8%	13.8%	6.7%	16.5%
Kelly	-4.3	-1.3	0.0	-0.2	-1.1	-3.1	-2.7
Eflin	-1.0	-1.4	-0.1	-0.7	-0.6	+0.5	-3.0

Carson Kelly is worse vs right-handed pitching. Zach Eflin is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Kelly has a D grade vs this particular release point.

Zach Eflin throws a Sinker 33% of the time. Carson Kelly has a B- grade against right-handed Sinkers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Sinker (R)

33%

Curve (R)

19%

Cutter (R)

16%

Slider (R)

13%

4-Seam (R)

10%

Changeup (R)

12% of Zach Eflin's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 4% higher than the MLB average. Carson Kelly has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 12%

+4%

Edge Painter 19%

+2%

Fringe Miss 14%

+1%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Meatball 6%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

Likely Ball 18%

-1%

Mid Challenge 10%

-1%

Non-Competitive 9%

-4%

35% of Zach Eflin's pitches are classified as Extreme Break Toward Third Base, which is 20% higher than the MLB average. Carson Kelly has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Break 35%

+20%

Just Gravity 31%

+17%

Extreme Slow Velo 17%

+12%

11.5% of Carson Kelly's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 5.2% lower than the league average. Zach Eflin strikes out 15.6% of the batters he faces, which is 0.0% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Strikeout -5.2% 0.0% 4%

Walk +0.3% -4.0% 38%

In Play +5.0% +4.0% 39%

On Base -1.8% -3.7% 31%

Hit -2.1% +0.2% 14%

Single -1.2% +0.0% 13%

2B / 3B -1.3% +0.0% 3%

Home Run +0.4% +0.1%

35.2% of Carson Kelly's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 0.8% higher than the league average. Zach Eflin induces Standard Grounders at a 36.4% rate, which is 1.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.7% +0.5% 34%

Standard Grounder +0.8% +1.9% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.5% -0.1% 14%

Low Screamer +1.0% -0.6% 9%

Rising Liner -1.8% -1.3% 4%

Maybe Homer 0.0% 0.0% 3%

Likely Homer -0.6% -1.0% 1%

No Doubter -0.2% +0.3% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.6% -0.1% 3%

Pop up +1.4% +0.4%

21.0% of Carson Kelly's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 3.3% lower than the league average. 25.7% of batted balls allowed by Zach Eflin are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +5.8% +1.7% 21%

75 to 86 mph -1.6% -1.5% 18%

87 to 93 mph -0.8% +1.7% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.0% -3.4% 24%

Above 100 mph -3.3% +1.4%

13.9% of Carson Kelly's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.5% higher than the league average. 11.1% of batted balls allowed by Zach Eflin are hit at this angle, which is 0.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -0.4% +1.7% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.2% +1.0% 8%

1 to 6° +1.1% -0.1% 18%

7 to 18° -4.0% -2.3% 15%

19 to 28° -0.5% -1.1% 11%

29 to 38° +2.5% -0.3% 7%

39 to 50° -0.6% +1.8% 8%

Above 50° +2.2% -0.8%

Carson Kelly has 3 plate appearances against Zach Eflin in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 3 with a strikeout.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	0.333
Expected From Contact →			0.60	0.00	0.02	0.58			0.199

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-06-28	Single		2%	48%	50%
2023-06-28	Strikeout
2023-06-28	Groundout			10%	90%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine Log InSubscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe