Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Carson Kelly

matchup for Austin Gomber

402nd out of 436 (Worst 8%)

Austin Gomber

matchup for Carson Kelly

43rd out of 567 (Best 8%)

Extreme advantage for Kelly

Carson Kelly has a 33.8% chance of reaching base vs Austin Gomber, which is 1.0% higher than Kelly's typical expectations, and 2.0% higher than batters facing Gomber.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	33.8%	27.9%	4.6%	6.3%	17.0%	5.9%	14.1%
Kelly	+1.0	+4.9	+1.5	+1.3	+2.1	-3.9	-5.0
Gomber	+2.0	+2.0	+1.2	-0.3	+1.1	+0.1	-3.7

Carson Kelly is better vs left-handed pitching. Austin Gomber is left handed with a horizontal release toward the first base side. Kelly has an A grade vs this particular release point.

Austin Gomber throws a 4-seam fastball 42% of the time. Carson Kelly has an A grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

42%

Slider (L)

21%

Kn-Curve (L)

18%

Changeup (L)

18%

9% of Austin Gomber's pitches are classified as Meatballs, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Carson Kelly has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Meatball 9%

+3%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Mid Challenge 11%

Weak Challenge 9%

Likely Ball 19%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

Chaser 4%

-2%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

42% of Austin Gomber's pitches are classified as Medium Break Toward Third Base, which is 23% higher than the MLB average. Carson Kelly has a B grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Break 42%

+23%

Extreme Drop 16%

+11%

Breaking (L) 40%

+10%

11.5% of Carson Kelly's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 5.2% lower than the league average. Austin Gomber strikes out 13.7% of the batters he faces, which is 3.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Strikeout -5.2% -3.3% 4%

Walk +0.3% -2.5% 38%

In Play +5.0% +5.9% 39%

On Base -1.8% +0.6% 31%

Hit -2.1% +3.1% 14%

Single -1.2% +1.2% 13%

2B / 3B -1.3% +1.6% 3%

Home Run +0.4% +0.3%

35.2% of Carson Kelly's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 0.8% higher than the league average. Austin Gomber induces Standard Grounders at a 32.5% rate, which is 1.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.7% -0.4% 34%

Standard Grounder +0.8% -1.9% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.5% +0.7% 14%

Low Screamer +1.0% +1.5% 9%

Rising Liner -1.8% +0.5% 4%

Maybe Homer 0.0% +0.6% 3%

Likely Homer -0.6% -0.5% 1%

No Doubter -0.2% -0.3% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.6% +1.5% 3%

Pop up +1.4% -1.6%

21.0% of Carson Kelly's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 3.3% lower than the league average. 21.5% of batted balls allowed by Austin Gomber are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +5.8% -1.7% 21%

75 to 86 mph -1.6% +1.9% 18%

87 to 93 mph -0.8% -1.7% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.0% +4.3% 24%

Above 100 mph -3.3% -2.8%

13.9% of Carson Kelly's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.5% higher than the league average. 12.1% of batted balls allowed by Austin Gomber are hit at this angle, which is 0.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -0.4% -0.7% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.2% -0.4% 8%

1 to 6° +1.1% -0.4% 18%

7 to 18° -4.0% -0.5% 15%

19 to 28° -0.5% +1.8% 11%

29 to 38° +2.5% +0.6% 7%

39 to 50° -0.6% +0.4% 8%

Above 50° +2.2% -0.8%

Carson Kelly has 5 plate appearances against Austin Gomber in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 5 with a home run and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	5	5	2	1	0	1	0	0	0.400
Expected From Contact →			3.14	0.98	0.30	1.86			0.628

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2022-09-09	Lineout		10%	14%	76%
2022-07-07	Home Run	98%
2022-07-07	Single		1%	82%	16%
2022-07-02	Lineout			83%	17%
2022-07-02	Groundout		18%	6%	76%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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