Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Carson Kelly

matchup for Shelby Miller

406th out of 436 (Worst 7%)

Shelby Miller

matchup for Carson Kelly

202nd out of 567 (Best 36%)

Strong advantage for Kelly

Carson Kelly has a 31.4% chance of reaching base vs Shelby Miller, which is 1.4% lower than Kelly's typical expectations, and 2.2% higher than batters facing Miller.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	31.4%	22.9%	4.4%	5.9%	12.6%	8.5%	18.1%
Kelly	-1.4	-0.1	+1.4	+0.9	-2.4	-1.3	-1.0
Miller	+2.2	+1.8	+0.7	+0.9	+0.1	+0.4	-6.6

Carson Kelly is worse vs right-handed pitching. Shelby Miller is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Kelly has a C+ grade vs this particular release point.

Shelby Miller throws a 4-seam fastball 56% of the time. Carson Kelly has a C grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

56%

Slider (R)

11%

Curve (R)

10%

Splitter (R)

Cutter (R)

14% of Shelby Miller's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Carson Kelly has a B grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 14%

+3%

Strong Challenge 7%

+2%

Non-Competitive 14%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Meatball 7%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Weak Challenge 6%

-2%

Chaser 4%

-2%

Likely Ball 17%

-3%

27% of Shelby Miller's pitches are classified as High Ride, which is 16% higher than the MLB average. Carson Kelly has a B grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

High Ride 27%

+16%

Medium Fast Velo 28%

+13%

Medium Break 31%

+12%

Fastball (R) 64%

+10%

11.5% of Carson Kelly's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 5.2% lower than the league average. Shelby Miller strikes out 16.1% of the batters he faces, which is 0.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Strikeout -5.2% +0.3% 4%

Walk +0.3% +0.8% 38%

In Play +5.0% -1.1% 39%

On Base -1.8% -4.9% 31%

Hit -2.1% -5.7% 14%

Single -1.2% -3.1% 13%

2B / 3B -1.3% -2.8% 3%

Home Run +0.4% +0.3%

35.2% of Carson Kelly's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 0.8% higher than the league average. Shelby Miller induces Standard Grounders at a 34.0% rate, which is 0.4% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.7% -0.6% 34%

Standard Grounder +0.8% -0.4% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.5% 0.0% 14%

Low Screamer +1.0% -2.8% 9%

Rising Liner -1.8% -0.2% 4%

Maybe Homer 0.0% -1.1% 3%

Likely Homer -0.6% -0.1% 1%

No Doubter -0.2% +0.6% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.6% +3.5% 3%

Pop up +1.4% +1.2%

21.0% of Carson Kelly's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 3.3% lower than the league average. 25.5% of batted balls allowed by Shelby Miller are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +5.8% -4.8% 21%

75 to 86 mph -1.6% -1.3% 18%

87 to 93 mph -0.8% +2.4% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.0% +2.5% 24%

Above 100 mph -3.3% +1.2%

13.9% of Carson Kelly's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.5% higher than the league average. 10.1% of batted balls allowed by Shelby Miller are hit at this angle, which is 1.4% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -0.4% -0.9% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.2% +0.7% 8%

1 to 6° +1.1% +0.1% 18%

7 to 18° -4.0% -2.2% 15%

19 to 28° -0.5% -2.2% 11%

29 to 38° +2.5% -1.4% 7%

39 to 50° -0.6% +2.4% 8%

Above 50° +2.2% +3.6%

Carson Kelly has 2 plate appearances against Shelby Miller in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 2 with a strikeout.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00			0.001

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2022-10-02	Flyout				100%
2022-09-23	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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