Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Alex Bregman

matchup for Corbin Burnes

427th out of 436 (Worst 2%)

Corbin Burnes

matchup for Alex Bregman

327th out of 567 (Worst 43%)

Extreme advantage for Bregman

Alex Bregman has a 34.8% chance of reaching base vs Corbin Burnes, which is 0.0% higher than Bregman's typical expectations, and 5.0% higher than batters facing Burnes.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	34.8%	26.8%	3.0%	5.7%	18.1%	8.0%	13.2%
Bregman	0.0	+1.4	-0.6	+0.3	+1.8	-1.5	-0.9
Burnes	+5.0	+4.9	+0.6	+1.4	+3.0	+0.1	-9.9

Alex Bregman is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Corbin Burnes is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Bregman has an A grade vs this particular release point.

Corbin Burnes throws a Cutter 52% of the time. Alex Bregman has an A grade against right-handed Cutters

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Cutter (R)

52%

Curve (R)

19%

Slider (R)

10%

Changeup (R)

10%

Sinker (R)

24% of Corbin Burnes's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 4% higher than the MLB average. Alex Bregman has a B grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 24%

+4%

Weak Challenge 10%

+2%

Chaser 8%

+2%

Fringe Miss 14%

+1%

Edge Painter 17%

-1%

Mid Challenge 10%

-1%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

Non-Competitive 9%

-3%

Meatball 2%

-4%

47% of Corbin Burnes's pitches are classified as Low Ride, which is 23% higher than the MLB average. Alex Bregman has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Low Ride 47%

+23%

Fast Velo 36%

+21%

Small Break 31%

+20%

8.6% of Alex Bregman's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 10.1% lower than the league average. Corbin Burnes strikes out 17.4% of the batters he faces, which is 3.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

18%

Strikeout -10.1% +3.2% 5%

Walk -2.1% -1.6% 35%

In Play +12.2% -1.6% 39%

On Base +4.7% -3.4% 31%

Hit +6.8% -1.8% 14%

Single +2.2% -0.7% 13%

2B / 3B +2.3% -0.2% 3%

Home Run +2.2% -0.8%

27.9% of Alex Bregman's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 6.5% lower than the league average. Corbin Burnes induces Standard Grounders at a 40.0% rate, which is 5.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.1% -0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder -6.5% +5.5% 7%

Hard Grounder -1.2% +0.9% 14%

Low Screamer +2.7% -1.1% 9%

Rising Liner +0.1% -1.1% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.1% -1.4% 3%

Likely Homer -0.4% -0.1% 1%

No Doubter -0.2% +0.2% 20%

Routine Flyout +3.6% -2.7% 3%

Pop up +1.7% 0.0%

20.3% of Alex Bregman's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 4.0% lower than the league average. 23.7% of batted balls allowed by Corbin Burnes are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -1.2% +2.3% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.2% +0.1% 18%

87 to 93 mph +1.7% +2.9% 19%

94 to 99 mph +2.2% -4.7% 24%

Above 100 mph -4.0% -0.6%

12.5% of Alex Bregman's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.1% higher than the league average. 10.1% of batted balls allowed by Corbin Burnes are hit at this angle, which is 1.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -4.4% +2.4% 12%

-10 to 0° -1.6% +0.9% 8%

1 to 6° -1.0% +2.4% 18%

7 to 18° -0.1% -1.5% 15%

19 to 28° +1.4% -4.1% 11%

29 to 38° +1.1% -1.3% 7%

39 to 50° +1.4% -0.9% 8%

Above 50° +3.2% +2.2%

Alex Bregman has 9 plate appearances against Corbin Burnes in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 9 with a strikeout.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	9	9	1	0	0	1	1	0	0.111
Expected From Contact →			1.20	0.01	0.05	1.15			0.134

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-08-22	Single			89%	10%
2024-08-22	Pop Out				100%
2024-08-22	Flyout		2%		98%
2024-06-22	Strikeout
2024-06-22	Groundout			24%	76%
2024-06-22	Flyout				99%
2023-05-22	Flyout				100%
2023-05-22	Pop Out				99%
2023-05-22	Flyout		2%		98%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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