Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Alex Bregman

matchup for Zac Gallen

433rd out of 436 (Worst 1%)

Zac Gallen

matchup for Alex Bregman

43rd out of 567 (Best 8%)

Extreme advantage for Bregman

Alex Bregman has a 39.4% chance of reaching base vs Zac Gallen, which is 4.5% higher than Bregman's typical expectations, and 6.7% higher than batters facing Gallen.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	39.4%	26.7%	4.1%	7.2%	15.4%	12.7%	18.4%
Bregman	+4.5	+1.3	+0.5	+1.7	-0.9	+3.2	+4.3
Gallen	+6.7	+5.7	+1.3	+2.0	+2.3	+1.0	-11.8

Alex Bregman is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Zac Gallen is right handed with an extreme release toward the third base side. Bregman has a B+ grade vs this particular release point.

Zac Gallen throws a 4-seam fastball 49% of the time. Alex Bregman has an A grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

49%

Kn-Curve (R)

23%

Changeup (R)

14%

Cutter (R)

10%

22% of Zac Gallen's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Alex Bregman has a B grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 22%

+2%

Chaser 8%

+2%

Fringe Miss 14%

+1%

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Strong Challenge 5%

+0%

Edge Painter 17%

+0%

Weak Challenge 7%

-1%

Meatball 5%

-2%

Non-Competitive 9%

-4%

25% of Zac Gallen's pitches are classified as Small Break Toward Third Base, which is 16% higher than the MLB average. Alex Bregman has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Small Break 25%

+16%

Extreme Drop 19%

+14%

Medium Fast Velo 24%

+8%

8.6% of Alex Bregman's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 10.1% lower than the league average. Zac Gallen strikes out 17.8% of the batters he faces, which is 3.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

18%

Strikeout -10.1% +3.5% 5%

Walk -2.1% -0.3% 35%

In Play +12.2% -3.2% 39%

On Base +4.7% -1.8% 31%

Hit +6.8% -1.5% 14%

Single +2.2% -0.9% 13%

2B / 3B +2.3% -0.5% 3%

Home Run +2.2% -0.1%

27.9% of Alex Bregman's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 6.5% lower than the league average. Zac Gallen induces Standard Grounders at a 32.4% rate, which is 2.0% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.1% +0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder -6.5% -2.0% 7%

Hard Grounder -1.2% +1.6% 14%

Low Screamer +2.7% +1.7% 9%

Rising Liner +0.1% -1.4% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.1% +0.9% 3%

Likely Homer -0.4% -0.2% 1%

No Doubter -0.2% -0.3% 20%

Routine Flyout +3.6% +0.8% 3%

Pop up +1.7% -1.3%

20.3% of Alex Bregman's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 4.0% lower than the league average. 26.3% of batted balls allowed by Zac Gallen are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -1.2% -0.7% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.2% -1.9% 18%

87 to 93 mph +1.7% +0.0% 19%

94 to 99 mph +2.2% +0.6% 24%

Above 100 mph -4.0% +2.0%

12.5% of Alex Bregman's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.1% higher than the league average. 10.6% of batted balls allowed by Zac Gallen are hit at this angle, which is 0.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -4.4% -0.9% 12%

-10 to 0° -1.6% +0.6% 8%

1 to 6° -1.0% -0.8% 18%

7 to 18° -0.1% +1.0% 15%

19 to 28° +1.4% +0.9% 11%

29 to 38° +1.1% -0.9% 7%

39 to 50° +1.4% +1.1% 8%

Above 50° +3.2% -1.1%

Alex Bregman has 6 plate appearances against Zac Gallen in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 5 with a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	6	5	2	0	0	2	1	1	0.400
Expected From Contact →			1.79	0.11	0.73	0.94			0.358

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-29	Single			53%	47%
2023-09-29	Groundout			26%	73%
2023-09-29	Single		67%	15%	18%
2022-09-28	Walk
2022-09-28	Flyout	11%	5%		83%
2022-09-28	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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