Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Alex Bregman

matchup for A.J. Puk

431st out of 436 (Worst 1%)

A.J. Puk

matchup for Alex Bregman

530th out of 567 (Worst 7%)

Moderate advantage for Bregman

Alex Bregman has a 29.2% chance of reaching base vs A.J. Puk, which is 5.6% lower than Bregman's typical expectations, and 4.6% higher than batters facing Puk.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	29.2%	22.7%	4.5%	5.4%	12.7%	6.6%	20.2%
Bregman	-5.6	-2.7	+0.9	0.0	-3.6	-2.9	+6.1
Puk	+4.6	+3.9	+1.9	+0.8	+1.2	+0.7	-17.1

Alex Bregman is about the same vs left-handed pitching as he is against right. A.J. Puk is left handed with an extreme release toward the first base side. Bregman has an A grade vs this particular release point.

A.J. Puk throws a 4-seam fastball 47% of the time. Alex Bregman has an A grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

47%

Slider (L)

38%

Sinker (L)

13%

16% of A.J. Puk's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 5% higher than the MLB average. Alex Bregman has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 16%

+5%

Strong Challenge 7%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Chaser 6%

+0%

Weak Challenge 9%

Fringe Miss 12%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

Likely Ball 17%

-2%

Meatball 3%

-3%

30% of A.J. Puk's pitches are classified as Very Fast Velocity, which is 27% higher than the MLB average. Alex Bregman has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Very Fast Velo 30%

+27%

Large Break 36%

+14%

Low Ride 37%

+14%

Breaking (L) 38%

+9%

8.6% of Alex Bregman's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 10.1% lower than the league average. A.J. Puk strikes out 20.8% of the batters he faces, which is 8.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

18%

Strikeout -10.1% +8.0% 5%

Walk -2.1% -1.3% 35%

In Play +12.2% -6.8% 39%

On Base +4.7% -4.0% 31%

Hit +6.8% -2.7% 14%

Single +2.2% -1.3% 13%

2B / 3B +2.3% -1.0% 3%

Home Run +2.2% -0.4%

27.9% of Alex Bregman's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 6.5% lower than the league average. A.J. Puk induces Standard Grounders at a 32.6% rate, which is 1.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.1% +0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder -6.5% -1.8% 7%

Hard Grounder -1.2% +0.2% 14%

Low Screamer +2.7% +2.1% 9%

Rising Liner +0.1% +1.0% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.1% -2.8% 3%

Likely Homer -0.4% +1.0% 1%

No Doubter -0.2% -0.8% 20%

Routine Flyout +3.6% +0.1% 3%

Pop up +1.7% +0.9%

20.3% of Alex Bregman's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 4.0% lower than the league average. 20.7% of batted balls allowed by A.J. Puk are hit at above 100 mph, which is 3.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -1.2% +3.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.2% +1.6% 18%

87 to 93 mph +1.7% -2.1% 19%

94 to 99 mph +2.2% +0.5% 24%

Above 100 mph -4.0% -3.6%

12.5% of Alex Bregman's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.1% higher than the league average. 10.1% of batted balls allowed by A.J. Puk are hit at this angle, which is 1.4% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -4.4% +0.2% 12%

-10 to 0° -1.6% -2.3% 8%

1 to 6° -1.0% -0.1% 18%

7 to 18° -0.1% +1.6% 15%

19 to 28° +1.4% -1.6% 11%

29 to 38° +1.1% -1.4% 7%

39 to 50° +1.4% +2.5% 8%

Above 50° +3.2% +1.1%

Alex Bregman has 9 plate appearances against A.J. Puk in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 9 with a double and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	9	9	2	0	1	1	2	0	0.222
Expected From Contact →			2.08	0.02	0.95	1.11			0.232

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-09-08	Strikeout
2023-08-15	Strikeout
2022-09-17	Double		67%	10%	23%
2022-08-12	Single		4%	84%	13%
2022-07-25	Pop Out			1%	98%
2022-07-17	Lineout			9%	90%
2022-07-09	Hit By Pitch
2022-06-01	Flyout	2%	10%		87%
2022-05-30	Lineout		14%	6%	81%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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