matchup for Luis Severino
6
Alex Bregman has a 31.9% chance of reaching base vs Luis Severino, which is 3.4% lower than Bregman's typical expectations, and 1.8% higher than batters facing Severino.
| Reach | Hit | HR | 2B / 3B | 1B | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction | 31.9% | 23.6% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 16.1% | 8.3% | 13.8% |
| Bregman | -3.4 | -2.2 | -0.6 | -1.0 | -0.6 | -1.1 | -0.8 |
| Severino | +1.8 | +2.3 | +0.5 | +0.4 | +1.4 | -0.5 | -9.3 |
Alex Bregman is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Luis Severino is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Bregman has a B grade vs this particular release point.
Luis Severino throws a 4-seam fastball 44% of the time. Alex Bregman has an A grade against right-handed 4-seamers
Pitch Type
% of Arsenal
4-Seam (R)
44%
Slider (R)
27%
Changeup (R)
14%
Sinker (R)
8%
Cutter (R)
6%
14% of Luis Severino's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Alex Bregman has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.
Pitch Label
% vs MLB
Mid Challenge
14%
+3%
Edge Painter
18%
+1%
Strong Challenge
6%
+1%
Fringe Miss
13%
+0%
Chaser
6%
0%
Weak Challenge
8%
0%
Likely Ball
19%
-1%
Non-Competitive
10%
-3%
Meatball
3%
-3%
27% of Luis Severino's pitches are classified as Very Fast Velocity, which is 19% higher than the MLB average. Alex Bregman has a C grade against this type of pitch.
Physical Trait
% vs MLB
Very Fast Velo
27%
+19%
Medium Break
36%
+16%
Medium Ride
24%
+10%
8.6% of Alex Bregman's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 10.1% lower than the league average. Luis Severino strikes out 16.2% of the batters he faces, which is 0.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.
18%
Strikeout
-10.1%
+0.9%
5%
Walk
-2.2%
-1.1%
35%
In Play
+12.3%
+0.2%
39%
On Base
+4.4%
-1.0%
31%
Hit
+6.6%
+0.1%
14%
Single
+2.1%
+0.2%
13%
2B / 3B
+2.3%
+0.4%
3%
Home Run
+2.2%
-0.5%
28.0% of Alex Bregman's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 6.4% lower than the league average. Luis Severino induces Standard Grounders at a 36.5% rate, which is 2.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.
0%
Squib/Bunt
-0.1%
+0.4%
34%
Standard Grounder
-6.4%
+2.1%
7%
Hard Grounder
-1.2%
-0.4%
14%
Low Screamer
+2.7%
+3.0%
9%
Rising Liner
+0.1%
-0.6%
4%
Maybe Homer
+0.1%
-0.6%
3%
Likely Homer
-0.4%
-1.3%
1%
No Doubter
-0.2%
+0.1%
20%
Routine Flyout
+3.6%
-2.0%
3%
Pop up
+1.7%
-0.8%
20.3% of Alex Bregman's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 4.0% lower than the league average. 23.7% of batted balls allowed by Luis Severino are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.
16%
Below 75 mph
-1.2%
+2.0%
21%
75 to 86 mph
+1.2%
+1.5%
18%
87 to 93 mph
+1.8%
-4.3%
19%
94 to 99 mph
+2.3%
+1.3%
24%
Above 100 mph
-4.0%
-0.6%
12.5% of Alex Bregman's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.0% higher than the league average. 10.2% of batted balls allowed by Luis Severino are hit at this angle, which is 1.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.
17%
Below -10°
-4.4%
+2.4%
12%
-10 to 0°
-1.6%
+0.2%
8%
1 to 6°
-1.0%
-0.6%
18%
7 to 18°
-0.1%
+0.9%
15%
19 to 28°
+1.4%
-0.6%
11%
29 to 38°
+1.0%
-1.3%
7%
39 to 50°
+1.5%
-0.9%
8%
Above 50°
+3.2%
-0.2%
Alex Bregman has 17 plate appearances against Luis Severino in the last 3 years. He is 5 for 17 with a home run and 3 doubles and
| PA | AB | H | HR | 2/3B | 1B | K | BB | Avg | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 17 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.294 |
| Expected From Contact → | 5.78 | 1.00 | 1.47 | 3.31 | 0.340 | ||||
| Expected From Contact | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Outcome | HR | 2/3B | 1B | Out |
| 2024-06-30 | GIDP | 59% | 41% | ||
| 2024-06-30 | Double | 21% | 60% | 19% | |
| 2024-06-30 | Double Play | ||||
| 2023-09-02 | Flyout | 1% | 8% | 91% | |
| 2023-09-02 | Single | 4% | 68% | 28% | |
| 2023-08-04 | Groundout | 11% | 89% | ||
| 2023-08-04 | Hit By Pitch | ||||
| 2023-08-04 | Strikeout | ||||
| 2022-10-20 | Home Run | 35% | 12% | 52% | |
| 2022-10-20 | Flyout | 5% | 94% | ||
| 2022-10-20 | Pop Out | 100% | |||
| 2022-06-30 | Flyout | 4% | 1% | 95% | |
| 2022-06-30 | Double | 60% | 19% | 3% | 18% |
| 2022-06-30 | Groundout | 60% | 39% | ||
| 2022-06-24 | Groundout | 2% | 59% | 39% | |
| 2022-06-24 | Double | 77% | 4% | 19% | |
| 2022-06-24 | Pop Out | 1% | 98% | ||
Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.
