Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Alex Bregman

matchup for Martin Perez

413th out of 436 (Worst 6%)

Martin Perez

matchup for Alex Bregman

172nd out of 567 (Best 31%)

Extreme advantage for Bregman

Alex Bregman has a 35.7% chance of reaching base vs Martin Perez, which is 0.9% higher than Bregman's typical expectations, and 1.1% higher than batters facing Perez.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	35.7%	27.6%	3.9%	5.4%	18.3%	8.1%	10.9%
Bregman	+0.9	+2.2	+0.4	-0.1	+2.0	-1.4	-3.2
Perez	+1.1	+2.3	+0.9	+0.0	+1.4	-1.2	-7.4

Alex Bregman is about the same vs left-handed pitching as he is against right. Martin Perez is left handed with an over-the-top delivery. Bregman has an A grade vs this particular release point.

Martin Perez throws a Sinker 34% of the time. Alex Bregman has an A+ grade against left-handed Sinkers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Sinker (L)

34%

Changeup (L)

25%

Cutter (L)

25%

4-Seam (L)

Curve (L)

22% of Martin Perez's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Alex Bregman has a B grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 22%

+2%

Edge Painter 19%

+2%

Fringe Miss 15%

+2%

Weak Challenge 9%

+0%

Meatball 6%

+0%

Chaser 6%

Mid Challenge 9%

-2%

Strong Challenge 3%

-2%

Non-Competitive 10%

-3%

62% of Martin Perez's pitches are classified as Low Ride, which is 38% higher than the MLB average. Alex Bregman has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Low Ride 62%

+38%

Extreme Break 34%

+19%

Offspeed (L) 25%

+13%

Fastball (L) 67%

+12%

Medium Velo 24%

+10%

8.6% of Alex Bregman's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 10.1% lower than the league average. Martin Perez strikes out 11.9% of the batters he faces, which is 6.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

18%

Strikeout -10.1% -6.1% 5%

Walk -2.1% -0.3% 35%

In Play +12.2% +6.4% 39%

On Base +4.7% +5.9% 31%

Hit +6.8% +6.3% 14%

Single +2.2% +3.5% 13%

2B / 3B +2.3% +3.3% 3%

Home Run +2.2% -0.6%

27.9% of Alex Bregman's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 6.5% lower than the league average. Martin Perez induces Standard Grounders at a 38.9% rate, which is 4.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.1% 0.0% 34%

Standard Grounder -6.5% +4.5% 7%

Hard Grounder -1.2% +0.3% 14%

Low Screamer +2.7% +0.4% 9%

Rising Liner +0.1% +0.4% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.1% -0.6% 3%

Likely Homer -0.4% -0.5% 1%

No Doubter -0.2% +0.2% 20%

Routine Flyout +3.6% -3.7% 3%

Pop up +1.7% -0.9%

20.3% of Alex Bregman's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 4.0% lower than the league average. 25.2% of batted balls allowed by Martin Perez are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -1.2% +0.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.2% +2.9% 18%

87 to 93 mph +1.7% -1.6% 19%

94 to 99 mph +2.2% -2.8% 24%

Above 100 mph -4.0% +0.9%

12.5% of Alex Bregman's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.1% higher than the league average. 10.3% of batted balls allowed by Martin Perez are hit at this angle, which is 1.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -4.4% +2.9% 12%

-10 to 0° -1.6% +1.3% 8%

1 to 6° -1.0% +0.6% 18%

7 to 18° -0.1% +0.2% 15%

19 to 28° +1.4% -1.4% 11%

29 to 38° +1.1% -1.1% 7%

39 to 50° +1.4% -0.3% 8%

Above 50° +3.2% -2.1%

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	23	21	6	0	1	5	2	2	0.286
Expected From Contact →			6.94	0.83	1.94	4.16			0.330

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-10-19	Strikeout
2023-10-18	Flyout
2023-09-04	Double		90%	10%
2023-07-03	Pop Out				100%
2023-04-14	Groundout			7%	93%
2023-04-14	Flyout		2%		98%
2023-04-14	Single			52%	48%
2022-09-05	Single			50%	49%
2022-09-05	Lineout	1%	41%	2%	56%
2022-09-05	Flyout	32%	29%		39%
2022-08-31	Walk
2022-08-31	Lineout		6%	21%	72%
2022-08-31	Fielders Choice			39%	61%
2022-08-09	Groundout			7%	93%
2022-08-09	Walk
2022-08-09	Single		5%	84%	11%
2022-05-20	GIDP			4%	96%
2022-05-20	Single		2%	48%	50%
2022-05-20	Single			23%	76%
2022-05-20	GIDP			59%	41%
2022-04-28	Groundout			8%	92%
2022-04-28	Strikeout
2022-04-28	Flyout				100%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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Contact and Outcomes

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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