Matchup Machine

Alex Bregman

Worst 4% of matchups for Kyle Gibson

Kyle Gibson

Best 22% of matchups for Alex Bregman

Extreme advantage for Bregman

+10

Model Prediction
Prediction	3.7%	5.1%	16.5%	9.2%	12.6%
MLB (+/-)	+0.9	+0.9	+2.6	-0.6	-12.6
Bregman	+0.7	+0.3	+1.0	-1.9	-3.9
Gibson	+0.3	+0.4	+1.0	+0.8	-7.1

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

3.7%

5.1%

16.5%

9.2%

12.6%

MLB (+/-)

+0.9

+2.6

-0.6

-12.6

Bregman

+0.7

+0.3

+1.0

-1.9

-3.9

Gibson

+0.3

+0.4

+1.0

+0.8

-7.1

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	12	11	2	1	0	1	2	1	.182
Expected From Contact →			2.48	0.65	0.21	1.61			.225

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-19	Home Run	65%	2%		33%
2023-09-19	Walk
2023-09-19	Groundout			13%	87%
2021-06-15	Forceout		6%	17%	77%
2021-06-15	Strikeout
2021-06-15	Groundout		2%	5%	93%
2021-05-21	Flyout				99%
2021-05-21	Groundout			36%	63%
2021-05-21	Flyout				100%
2021-05-16	Strikeout
2021-05-16	Groundout			11%	89%
2021-05-16	Single		9%	79%	12%
2020-09-26	Strikeout
2020-09-26	Fielders Choice Out			19%	80%
2020-09-26	Walk
2020-09-16	Flyout				99%
2020-09-16	Groundout			23%	76%
2020-09-16	Walk
2020-09-16	Double		78%	18%	4%

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
⭐	40%	90	RHB vs RHP	35	51%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

⭐

40%

RHB vs RHP

51%

	Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
⭐⭐	42%	99	Fastball	17	56%
	21%	47	Breaking	55	27%
	9%	62	Offspeed	47	17%
			------------------
⭐	43%	82	Sinker	32	26%
	37%	36	Slider	58	19%
⭐	38%	60	Cutter	19	17%
	48%	61	Changeup	41	17%
⭐⭐	42%	92	Four-Seam FB	30	12%
	37%	67	Curveball	45	8%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

⭐⭐

42%

Fastball

56%

21%

Breaking

27%

Offspeed

17%

------------------

⭐

43%

Sinker

26%

37%

Slider

19%

⭐

38%

Cutter

17%

48%

Changeup

17%

⭐⭐

42%

Four-Seam FB

12%

37%

Curveball

	Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
⭐	57%	104	Away / Glove Side	49	14%
	57%	18	Bottom of zone	16	14%
⭐⭐	63%	100	Top of zone	19	9%
	60%	40	In / Arm Side	25	7%
	77%	53	Middle	24	5%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

⭐

57%

104

Away / Glove Side

14%

57%

Bottom of zone

14%

⭐⭐

63%

100

Top of zone

60%

In / Arm Side

77%

Middle

	Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
	22%	92	Away / Glove Side	76	47%
	31%	81	Below the zone	52	44%
⭐	26%	75	Above the zone	28	16%
	26%	53	In / Arm Side	6	8%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

22%

Away / Glove Side

47%

31%

Below the zone

44%

⭐

26%

Above the zone

16%

26%

In / Arm Side

	Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
⭐⭐	45%	84	Batter Ahead	7	28%
⭐⭐	58%	103	2 Strikes	38	27%
	45%	83	Batter Behind	59	27%
	26%	59	First Pitch	18	26%
⭐⭐	51%	87	3 Balls	6	8%
⭐⭐	64%	97	Full Count	-9	5%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

⭐⭐

45%

Batter Ahead

28%

⭐⭐

58%

103

2 Strikes

27%

45%

Batter Behind

27%

26%

First Pitch

26%

⭐⭐

51%

3 Balls

⭐⭐

64%

Full Count

-9