Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Kevin Pillar

matchup for Luis Castillo

18th out of 436 (Best 5%)

Luis Castillo

matchup for Kevin Pillar

426th out of 567 (Worst 25%)

Strong advantage for Castillo

Kevin Pillar has a 26.0% chance of reaching base vs Luis Castillo, which is 2.1% lower than Pillar's typical expectations, and 4.8% lower than batters facing Castillo.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	26.0%	19.8%	1.7%	4.7%	13.5%	6.2%	26.8%
Pillar	-2.1	-1.3	-0.1	-0.3	-0.8	-0.9	+1.2
Castillo	-4.8	-3.4	-1.4	-0.5	-1.5	-1.4	+2.2

Kevin Pillar is worse vs right-handed pitching. Luis Castillo is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Pillar has a D+ grade vs this particular release point.

Luis Castillo throws a 4-seam fastball 40% of the time. Kevin Pillar has a D- grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

40%

Slider (R)

21%

Sinker (R)

20%

Changeup (R)

19%

6% of Luis Castillo's pitches are classified as Strong Challenges, which is 1% higher than the MLB average. Kevin Pillar has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Weak Challenge 8%

Likely Ball 19%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

Meatball 4%

-3%

43% of Luis Castillo's pitches are classified as Extreme Break Toward Third Base, which is 28% higher than the MLB average. Kevin Pillar has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Break 43%

+28%

Very Fast Velo 29%

+21%

Medium Drop 24%

+11%

14.2% of Kevin Pillar's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 0.7% lower than the league average. Luis Castillo strikes out 20.3% of the batters he faces, which is 7.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

14%

Strikeout -0.7% +7.2% 6%

Walk -3.2% -1.4% 38%

In Play +3.9% -5.8% 39%

On Base -6.0% -5.8% 31%

Hit -2.8% -4.4% 14%

Single -1.4% -2.1% 13%

2B / 3B -1.0% -1.8% 3%

Home Run -0.3% -0.5%

34.6% of Kevin Pillar's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 0.2% higher than the league average. Luis Castillo induces Standard Grounders at a 37.0% rate, which is 2.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.3% -0.4% 34%

Standard Grounder +0.2% +2.6% 7%

Hard Grounder -1.7% +0.5% 14%

Low Screamer +2.5% +0.8% 9%

Rising Liner +1.6% -0.2% 4%

Maybe Homer -1.5% +0.9% 3%

Likely Homer -0.2% -0.2% 1%

No Doubter -0.8% -0.2% 20%

Routine Flyout -1.2% -3.8% 3%

Pop up +1.4% 0.0%

18.6% of Kevin Pillar's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 5.7% lower than the league average. 25.4% of batted balls allowed by Luis Castillo are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +5.3% +1.8% 21%

75 to 86 mph +0.9% +0.9% 18%

87 to 93 mph +0.2% -0.5% 19%

94 to 99 mph -0.6% -3.3% 24%

Above 100 mph -5.7% +1.1%

11.3% of Kevin Pillar's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.1% lower than the league average. 11.4% of batted balls allowed by Luis Castillo are hit at this angle, which is 0.0% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -1.2% +1.2% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.3% +1.9% 8%

1 to 6° -0.5% -0.8% 18%

7 to 18° +0.6% -1.0% 15%

19 to 28° +0.3% -1.5% 11%

29 to 38° -0.1% 0.0% 7%

39 to 50° +1.3% -1.2% 8%

Above 50° 0.0% +1.4%

Kevin Pillar has 6 plate appearances against Luis Castillo in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 6 with 2 strikeouts.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	6	6	1	0	0	1	2	0	0.167
Expected From Contact →			1.00	0.00	0.02	0.98			0.166

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-07-11	Strikeout
2024-07-11	GIDP			8%	91%
2024-07-11	Single			90%	9%
2024-06-02	Pop Out				100%
2024-06-02	Strikeout
2024-06-02	Hit By Pitch

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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