Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Trea Turner

matchup for Luis Severino

387th out of 436 (Worst 11%)

Luis Severino

matchup for Trea Turner

341st out of 564 (Worst 40%)

Moderate advantage for Turner

Trea Turner has a 32.9% chance of reaching base vs Luis Severino, which is 0.4% higher than Turner's typical expectations, and 2.8% higher than batters facing Severino.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	32.9%	24.9%	2.3%	4.5%	18.1%	8.0%	19.4%
Turner	+0.4	+0.5	-0.6	-0.8	+1.8	0.0	-1.1
Severino	+2.8	+3.7	-0.2	+0.4	+3.4	-0.9	-3.8

Trea Turner is a bit worse vs right-handed pitching. Luis Severino is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Turner has a B grade vs this particular release point.

Luis Severino throws a 4-seam fastball 44% of the time. Trea Turner has an A grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

44%

Slider (R)

27%

Changeup (R)

14%

Sinker (R)

Cutter (R)

14% of Luis Severino's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Trea Turner has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 14%

+3%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Chaser 6%

Weak Challenge 8%

Likely Ball 19%

-1%

Non-Competitive 10%

-3%

Meatball 3%

-3%

27% of Luis Severino's pitches are classified as Very Fast Velocity, which is 19% higher than the MLB average. Trea Turner has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Very Fast Velo 27%

+19%

Medium Break 36%

+16%

Medium Ride 24%

+10%

11.0% of Trea Turner's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 6.0% lower than the league average. Luis Severino strikes out 16.2% of the batters he faces, which is 0.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Strikeout -6.0% +0.9% 5%

Walk -3.0% -1.1% 36%

In Play +9.0% +0.2% 39%

On Base +1.6% -0.9% 31%

Hit +4.6% +0.2% 14%

Single +1.7% +0.2% 13%

2B / 3B +2.1% +0.4% 3%

Home Run +0.8% -0.5%

35.3% of Trea Turner's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 0.9% higher than the league average. Luis Severino induces Standard Grounders at a 35.9% rate, which is 1.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.3% +0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder +0.9% +1.5% 7%

Hard Grounder +2.2% -0.2% 14%

Low Screamer -0.6% +3.2% 9%

Rising Liner +0.8% -0.3% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.7% -0.4% 3%

Likely Homer -0.5% -1.3% 1%

No Doubter +0.2% -0.5% 20%

Routine Flyout -0.8% -1.4% 3%

Pop up -1.2% -0.7%

27.9% of Trea Turner's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 3.6% higher than the league average. 23.8% of batted balls allowed by Luis Severino are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.5% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -1.2% +2.0% 21%

75 to 86 mph -0.6% +0.9% 18%

87 to 93 mph -1.6% -3.8% 19%

94 to 99 mph -0.2% +1.5% 24%

Above 100 mph +3.6% -0.5%

10.5% of Trea Turner's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.9% lower than the league average. 10.1% of batted balls allowed by Luis Severino are hit at this angle, which is 1.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +0.7% +1.2% 12%

-10 to 0° +2.7% +0.3% 8%

1 to 6° +0.8% -0.3% 18%

7 to 18° +0.1% +1.5% 15%

19 to 28° -1.5% -0.5% 11%

29 to 38° -0.9% -1.3% 7%

39 to 50° -0.5% -0.7% 8%

Above 50° -1.5% -0.2%

Trea Turner has 9 plate appearances against Luis Severino in the last 3 years. He is 3 for 8 with a home run, a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	9	8	3	1	0	2	2	1	0.375
Expected From Contact →			2.28	0.96	0.04	1.29			0.285

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-10-06	Single			45%	55%
2024-10-06	Pop Out			2%	98%
2024-10-06	Single			76%	23%
2024-09-19	Flyout				100%
2024-09-19	Strikeout
2024-09-19	Home Run	96%	3%		1%
2024-09-14	Strikeout
2024-09-14	Groundout			5%	95%
2024-09-14	Walk

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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