matchup for Mitch Keller
matchup for Orlando Arcia
2
Orlando Arcia has a 29.8% chance of reaching base vs Mitch Keller, which is 0.1% higher than Arcia's typical expectations, and 2.3% lower than batters facing Keller.
| Reach | Hit | HR | 2B / 3B | 1B | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction | 29.8% | 23.1% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 16.4% | 6.7% | 25.4% |
| Arcia | +0.1 | +1.5 | 0.0 | -0.2 | +1.8 | -1.5 | +0.4 |
| Keller | -2.3 | -1.2 | -0.3 | -0.8 | -0.1 | -1.1 | -0.1 |
Orlando Arcia is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Mitch Keller is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Arcia has a C+ grade vs this particular release point.
Mitch Keller throws a 4-seam fastball 34% of the time. Orlando Arcia has a D grade against right-handed 4-seamers
Pitch Type
% of Arsenal
4-Seam (R)
34%
Slider (R)
21%
Sinker (R)
19%
Cutter (R)
12%
Curve (R)
11%
13% of Mitch Keller's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Orlando Arcia has a C grade against this type of pitch.
Pitch Label
% vs MLB
Mid Challenge
13%
+2%
Weak Challenge
10%
+2%
Edge Painter
18%
+1%
Strong Challenge
5%
+0%
Fringe Miss
13%
+0%
Non-Competitive
12%
-1%
Chaser
5%
-1%
Likely Ball
18%
-1%
Meatball
4%
-3%
64% of Mitch Keller's pitches are classified as Fastball Pitches, which is 10% higher than the MLB average. Orlando Arcia has a C grade against this type of pitch from right handers.
Physical Trait
% vs MLB
Fastball (R)
64%
+10%
Fast Velo
24%
+9%
14.0% of Orlando Arcia's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 1.0% lower than the league average. Mitch Keller strikes out 16.1% of the batters he faces, which is 1.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.
14%
Strikeout
-1.0%
+1.1%
4%
Walk
-0.5%
-1.9%
39%
In Play
+1.5%
+0.8%
39%
On Base
-2.0%
+0.9%
31%
Hit
-1.5%
+2.8%
14%
Single
-0.6%
+1.2%
13%
2B / 3B
-0.7%
+1.6%
3%
Home Run
-0.2%
+0.0%
42.6% of Orlando Arcia's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 8.2% higher than the league average. Mitch Keller induces Standard Grounders at a 34.1% rate, which is 0.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.
0%
Squib/Bunt
0.0%
-0.4%
34%
Standard Grounder
+8.2%
-0.3%
7%
Hard Grounder
-0.8%
-0.6%
14%
Low Screamer
-0.6%
+2.3%
9%
Rising Liner
-0.3%
+1.9%
4%
Maybe Homer
-1.6%
-0.8%
3%
Likely Homer
-1.1%
+0.5%
1%
No Doubter
-0.8%
0.0%
20%
Routine Flyout
-3.5%
-2.5%
3%
Pop up
+0.5%
-0.2%
20.0% of Orlando Arcia's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 4.3% lower than the league average. 25.5% of batted balls allowed by Mitch Keller are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.
16%
Below 75 mph
+2.3%
-1.3%
21%
75 to 86 mph
+0.5%
+2.4%
18%
87 to 93 mph
+0.9%
-1.8%
19%
94 to 99 mph
+0.5%
-0.4%
24%
Above 100 mph
-4.3%
+1.2%
8.1% of Orlando Arcia's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 3.3% lower than the league average. 13.0% of batted balls allowed by Mitch Keller are hit at this angle, which is 1.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.
17%
Below -10°
+7.2%
+1.1%
12%
-10 to 0°
+1.5%
-2.3%
8%
1 to 6°
+0.3%
+0.0%
18%
7 to 18°
-0.9%
+1.6%
15%
19 to 28°
-2.9%
-0.5%
11%
29 to 38°
-3.3%
+1.5%
7%
39 to 50°
-1.9%
-0.2%
8%
Above 50°
+0.1%
-1.1%
Orlando Arcia has 8 plate appearances against Mitch Keller in the last 3 years. He is 5 for 8 with a double and
| PA | AB | H | HR | 2/3B | 1B | K | BB | Avg | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 8 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.625 |
| Expected From Contact → | 2.71 | 0.00 | 0.51 | 2.20 | 0.339 | ||||
| Expected From Contact | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Outcome | HR | 2/3B | 1B | Out |
| 2024-05-25 | Groundout | 1% | 7% | 92% | |
| 2024-05-25 | Single | 4% | 4% | 92% | |
| 2024-05-25 | Flyout | 100% | |||
| 2023-09-08 | Single | 2% | 87% | 12% | |
| 2023-09-08 | Single | 93% | 6% | ||
| 2023-09-08 | Double | 43% | 6% | 51% | |
| 2023-08-08 | Groundout | 17% | 83% | ||
| 2023-08-08 | Single | 7% | 93% | ||
Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.
