Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

J.D. Davis

matchup for Logan Allen

36th out of 436 (Best 9%)

Logan Allen

matchup for J.D. Davis

37th out of 567 (Best 7%)

Strong advantage for Davis

J.D. Davis has a 34.7% chance of reaching base vs Logan Allen, which is 4.5% higher than Davis's typical expectations, and 2.4% lower than batters facing Allen.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	34.7%	23.7%	2.8%	5.2%	15.7%	11.1%	23.9%
Davis	+4.5	+3.1	+0.8	+0.8	+1.5	+1.4	-5.1
Allen	-2.4	-0.8	-1.0	-0.7	+0.9	-1.5	+6.7

J.D. Davis is about the same vs left-handed pitching as he is against right. Logan Allen is left handed with an over-the-top delivery. Davis has a B+ grade vs this particular release point.

Logan Allen throws a 4-seam fastball 47% of the time. J.D. Davis has a D grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

47%

Slider (L)

22%

Changeup (L)

19%

Cutter (L)

11%

7% of Logan Allen's pitches are classified as Meatballs, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. J.D. Davis has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Meatball 7%

+2%

Likely Ball 20%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Mid Challenge 11%

+0%

Chaser 6%

+0%

Non-Competitive 12%

Edge Painter 17%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

Weak Challenge 7%

-2%

31% of Logan Allen's pitches are classified as Medium Velocity, which is 16% higher than the MLB average. J.D. Davis has a B grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Velo 31%

+16%

Small Break 21%

+13%

Medium Drop 22%

+9%

16.1% of J.D. Davis's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.5% higher than the league average. Logan Allen strikes out 11.9% of the batters he faces, which is 4.2% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +2.5% -4.2% 4%

Walk +1.0% +1.6% 41%

In Play -3.5% +2.6% 39%

On Base -0.7% +1.5% 31%

Hit -1.7% -0.1% 14%

Single -1.0% -1.0% 13%

2B / 3B -0.5% -0.5% 3%

Home Run -0.2% +1.4%

37.9% of J.D. Davis's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 3.5% higher than the league average. Logan Allen induces Standard Grounders at a 33.5% rate, which is 1.0% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.5% +1.0% 34%

Standard Grounder +3.5% -1.0% 7%

Hard Grounder +3.7% +0.7% 14%

Low Screamer -5.0% -3.2% 9%

Rising Liner -0.3% +0.2% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.3% +0.2% 3%

Likely Homer +1.2% +2.2% 1%

No Doubter +0.0% +0.1% 20%

Routine Flyout -2.7% -1.6% 3%

Pop up -1.2% +1.4%

31.5% of J.D. Davis's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 7.2% higher than the league average. 33.7% of batted balls allowed by Logan Allen are hit at above 100 mph, which is 9.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -3.4% +0.3% 21%

75 to 86 mph -3.2% -2.9% 18%

87 to 93 mph -2.6% -2.2% 19%

94 to 99 mph +2.0% -4.6% 24%

Above 100 mph +7.2% +9.4%

12.0% of J.D. Davis's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.5% higher than the league average. 9.8% of batted balls allowed by Logan Allen are hit at this angle, which is 1.7% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +1.4% -0.3% 12%

-10 to 0° +3.8% +1.7% 8%

1 to 6° +0.8% +0.9% 18%

7 to 18° 0.0% +0.3% 15%

19 to 28° -1.4% -1.1% 11%

29 to 38° +0.5% -1.7% 7%

39 to 50° -2.0% -0.5% 8%

Above 50° -3.0% +0.5%

J.D. Davis has 5 plate appearances against Logan Allen in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 5 with 2 home runs and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	5	5	2	2	0	0	0	0	0.400
Expected From Contact →			1.46	0.85	0.17	0.44			0.292

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-03-29	Home Run	7%	2%		91%
2024-03-29	Groundout			3%	97%
2024-03-29	Home Run	78%	11%		11%
2023-09-13	Groundout			25%	74%
2023-09-13	Groundout		5%	15%	81%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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