Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

J.D. Davis

matchup for Austin Gomber

23rd out of 436 (Best 6%)

Austin Gomber

matchup for J.D. Davis

203rd out of 567 (Best 37%)

Leans in favor of Gomber

J.D. Davis has a 28.8% chance of reaching base vs Austin Gomber, which is 1.4% lower than Davis's typical expectations, and 2.9% lower than batters facing Gomber.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	28.8%	23.2%	2.2%	6.0%	14.9%	5.7%	22.7%
Davis	-1.4	+2.6	+0.3	+1.7	+0.6	-4.0	-6.2
Gomber	-2.9	-2.8	-1.1	-0.6	-1.0	-0.2	+4.9

J.D. Davis is about the same vs left-handed pitching as he is against right. Austin Gomber is left handed with a horizontal release toward the first base side. Davis has a B grade vs this particular release point.

Austin Gomber throws a 4-seam fastball 42% of the time. J.D. Davis has a D grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

42%

Slider (L)

21%

Kn-Curve (L)

18%

Changeup (L)

18%

9% of Austin Gomber's pitches are classified as Meatballs, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. J.D. Davis has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Meatball 9%

+3%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Mid Challenge 11%

Weak Challenge 9%

Likely Ball 19%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

Chaser 4%

-2%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

42% of Austin Gomber's pitches are classified as Medium Break Toward Third Base, which is 23% higher than the MLB average. J.D. Davis has a B- grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Break 42%

+23%

Extreme Drop 16%

+11%

Breaking (L) 40%

+10%

16.1% of J.D. Davis's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.5% higher than the league average. Austin Gomber strikes out 13.7% of the batters he faces, which is 3.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +2.5% -3.3% 4%

Walk +1.0% -2.5% 41%

In Play -3.5% +5.9% 39%

On Base -0.7% +0.6% 31%

Hit -1.7% +3.1% 14%

Single -1.0% +1.2% 13%

2B / 3B -0.5% +1.6% 3%

Home Run -0.2% +0.3%

37.9% of J.D. Davis's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 3.5% higher than the league average. Austin Gomber induces Standard Grounders at a 32.5% rate, which is 1.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.5% -0.4% 34%

Standard Grounder +3.5% -1.9% 7%

Hard Grounder +3.7% +0.7% 14%

Low Screamer -5.0% +1.5% 9%

Rising Liner -0.3% +0.5% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.3% +0.6% 3%

Likely Homer +1.2% -0.5% 1%

No Doubter +0.0% -0.3% 20%

Routine Flyout -2.7% +1.5% 3%

Pop up -1.2% -1.6%

31.5% of J.D. Davis's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 7.2% higher than the league average. 21.5% of batted balls allowed by Austin Gomber are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -3.4% -1.7% 21%

75 to 86 mph -3.2% +1.9% 18%

87 to 93 mph -2.6% -1.7% 19%

94 to 99 mph +2.0% +4.3% 24%

Above 100 mph +7.2% -2.8%

12.0% of J.D. Davis's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.5% higher than the league average. 12.1% of batted balls allowed by Austin Gomber are hit at this angle, which is 0.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +1.4% -0.7% 12%

-10 to 0° +3.8% -0.4% 8%

1 to 6° +0.8% -0.4% 18%

7 to 18° 0.0% -0.5% 15%

19 to 28° -1.4% +1.8% 11%

29 to 38° +0.5% +0.6% 7%

39 to 50° -2.0% +0.4% 8%

Above 50° -3.0% -0.8%

J.D. Davis has 10 plate appearances against Austin Gomber in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 10 with 4 strikeouts.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	10	10	1	0	0	1	4	0	0.100
Expected From Contact →			0.98	0.00	0.13	0.86			0.098

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-05-22	Strikeout
2024-05-22	Single			28%	72%
2024-05-22	Groundout		2%	48%	50%
2023-07-07	Pop Out				99%
2023-07-07	Double Play
2023-07-07	Strikeout
2022-09-29	Strikeout
2022-05-22	Strikeout
2022-05-22	GIDP			4%	96%
2022-05-22	Groundout		10%	6%	84%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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