Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Victor Caratini

matchup for Seth Lugo

259th out of 436 (Worst 41%)

Seth Lugo

matchup for Victor Caratini

244th out of 567 (Best 44%)

Moderate advantage for Caratini

Victor Caratini has a 33.4% chance of reaching base vs Seth Lugo, which is 1.1% higher than Caratini's typical expectations, and 1.0% higher than batters facing Lugo.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	33.4%	26.4%	2.2%	4.7%	19.5%	7.1%	20.9%
Caratini	+1.1	+2.4	+0.2	-0.3	+2.5	-1.3	-0.1
Lugo	+1.0	+2.4	-1.0	-0.3	+3.7	-1.5	-3.9

Victor Caratini is better vs right-handed pitching. Seth Lugo is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Caratini has a C grade vs this particular release point.

Seth Lugo throws a 4-seam fastball 29% of the time. Victor Caratini has a B+ grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

29%

Curve (R)

28%

Sinker (R)

17%

Slider (R)

13%

Changeup (R)

10% of Seth Lugo's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Victor Caratini has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 10%

+2%

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Chaser 6%

Non-Competitive 12%

-1%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Likely Ball 18%

-1%

25% of Seth Lugo's pitches are classified as Extreme Drop, which is 20% higher than the MLB average. Victor Caratini has a D grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Drop 25%

+20%

Large Break 18%

+13%

Extreme Slow Velo 16%

+11%

Breaking (R) 41%

+10%

12.3% of Victor Caratini's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 3.9% lower than the league average. Seth Lugo strikes out 16.5% of the batters he faces, which is 0.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Strikeout -3.9% +0.8% 4%

Walk +0.3% -2.3% 38%

In Play +3.6% +1.4% 39%

On Base +6.9% -0.4% 31%

Hit +6.6% +1.9% 14%

Single +3.4% +0.7% 13%

2B / 3B +3.8% +1.1% 3%

Home Run -0.6% +0.1%

39.8% of Victor Caratini's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.4% higher than the league average. Seth Lugo induces Standard Grounders at a 36.3% rate, which is 1.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.2% +1.4% 34%

Standard Grounder +5.4% +1.9% 7%

Hard Grounder +3.0% -1.6% 14%

Low Screamer -1.8% +0.5% 9%

Rising Liner -1.0% -1.0% 4%

Maybe Homer -1.6% -0.5% 3%

Likely Homer +0.5% +2.1% 1%

No Doubter -0.6% -0.5% 20%

Routine Flyout -3.2% -0.1% 3%

Pop up -0.6% -2.2%

30.1% of Victor Caratini's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 5.8% higher than the league average. 22.7% of batted balls allowed by Seth Lugo are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -1.4% +1.3% 21%

75 to 86 mph -1.1% +0.9% 18%

87 to 93 mph -0.3% -1.4% 19%

94 to 99 mph -3.0% +0.8% 24%

Above 100 mph +5.8% -1.6%

10.9% of Victor Caratini's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.5% lower than the league average. 14.0% of batted balls allowed by Seth Lugo are hit at this angle, which is 2.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +5.2% +2.2% 12%

-10 to 0° +1.8% -0.2% 8%

1 to 6° +3.4% +1.3% 18%

7 to 18° -2.9% -2.0% 15%

19 to 28° -2.1% -1.4% 11%

29 to 38° -0.5% +2.6% 7%

39 to 50° -1.2% +0.4% 8%

Above 50° -3.6% -2.9%

Victor Caratini has 6 plate appearances against Seth Lugo in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 6 with 2 strikeouts.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	6	6	2	0	0	2	2	0	0.333
Expected From Contact →			1.13	0.00	0.31	0.82			0.188

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-08-30	Strikeout
2024-08-30	Strikeout
2024-08-30	Lineout		1%	1%	97%
2023-04-15	Single			51%	48%
2023-04-15	Single		29%	29%	42%
2022-09-19	Flyout				100%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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