Matchup Machine

Josh Bell

Worst 6% of matchups for Joey Lucchesi

Joey Lucchesi

Best 20% of matchups for Josh Bell

Extreme advantage for Bell

+10

Model Prediction
Prediction	3.7%	4.8%	14.5%	11.8%	16.3%
MLB (+/-)	+0.9	+0.5	+0.5	+2.1	-8.9
Bell	+0.2	+0.4	-0.0	+1.0	-5.5
Lucchesi	+0.7	+0.3	-0.1	+1.3	-2.8

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

3.7%

4.8%

14.5%

11.8%

16.3%

MLB (+/-)

+0.9

+0.5

+2.1

-8.9

Bell

+0.2

+0.4

-0.0

+1.0

-5.5

Lucchesi

+0.7

+0.3

-0.1

+1.3

-2.8

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	3	1	0	1	0	0	0	.333
Expected From Contact →			0.54	0.00	0.15	0.39			.179

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-19	Double		14%	19%	67%
2023-09-19	GIDP			17%	83%
2023-09-19	Groundout			3%	97%

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
⭐	52%	79	RHB vs LHP	22	88%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

⭐

52%

RHB vs LHP

88%

	Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
⭐	49%	87	Fastball	36	69%
	25%	45	Breaking	15	25%
	23%	50	Offspeed	66	6%
			------------------
	49%	52	Sinker	60	46%
	45%	29	Curveball	10	22%
	58%	59	Cutter	82	19%
	49%	48	Changeup	63	6%
⭐⭐	47%	91	Four-Seam FB	27	4%
	57%	45	Slider	25	3%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

⭐

49%

Fastball

69%

25%

Breaking

25%

23%

Offspeed

------------------

49%

Sinker

46%

45%

Curveball

22%

58%

Cutter

19%

49%

Changeup

⭐⭐

47%

Four-Seam FB

57%

Slider

	Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
⭐	70%	98	Bottom of zone	42	14%
	81%	37	Away / Arm Side	21	11%
	76%	61	Top of zone	25	10%
	59%	37	In / Glove Side	49	7%
	76%	77	Middle	56	4%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

⭐

70%

Bottom of zone

14%

81%

Away / Arm Side

11%

76%

Top of zone

10%

59%

In / Glove Side

76%

Middle

Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
26%	52	Away / Arm Side	13	30%
39%	35	Below the zone	12	30%
32%	73	Above the zone	33	29%
37%	85	In / Glove Side	48	21%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

26%

Away / Arm Side

30%

39%

Below the zone

30%

32%

Above the zone

29%

37%

In / Glove Side

21%

	Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
	54%	55	Batter Ahead	22	30%
⭐⭐	35%	97	First Pitch	28	28%
	52%	69	Batter Behind	34	27%
	65%	43	2 Strikes	52	26%
	64%	58	3 Balls	45	10%
	80%	23	Full Count	53	5%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

54%

Batter Ahead

30%

⭐⭐

35%

First Pitch

28%

52%

Batter Behind

27%

65%

2 Strikes

26%

64%

3 Balls

10%

80%

Full Count