Matchup Machine

Josh Bell

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matchup for Zack Wheeler

324th out of 436 (Worst 26%)

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Zack Wheeler

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matchup for Josh Bell

550th out of 567 (Worst 3%)

Strong advantage for Wheeler
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Model Prediction

Josh Bell has a 27.1% chance of reaching base vs Zack Wheeler, which is 6.5% lower than Bell's typical expectations, and 1.5% higher than batters facing Wheeler.

Reach Hit HR 2B / 3B 1B BB K
Prediction27.1%17.7%3.2%3.2%11.3%9.5%33.8%
Bell-6.5-6.0+0.2-1.5-4.7-0.5+11.0
Wheeler+1.5+1.1+0.3-0.1+0.9+0.40.0

Handedness and Release Point

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Josh Bell is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Zack Wheeler is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Bell has a B grade vs this particular release point.

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On the Way to the Plate

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Zack Wheeler throws a 4-seam fastball 42% of the time. Josh Bell has an A grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type % of Arsenal    4-Seam (R)
42%
   Slider (R)
21%
   Sinker (R)
19%
   Curve (R)
11%

Contact and Outcomes

12.4% of Josh Bell's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 3.7% lower than the league average. Zack Wheeler strikes out 21.0% of the batters he faces, which is 7.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label 16%         Strikeout -3.7% +7.8% 4%         Walk +0.3% -2.6% 38%         In Play +3.4% -5.2% 39%         On Base +2.2% -6.5% 31%         Hit +1.9% -3.8% 14%         Single +0.3% -1.5% 13%         2B / 3B +0.5% -1.4% 3%         Home Run +1.1% -1.0%

History

Josh Bell has 27 plate appearances against Zack Wheeler in the last 3 years. He is 8 for 25 with 3 home runs, a double and 2 walks

PA AB H HR 2/3B 1B K BB Avg
Actual27258314820.320
Expected From Contact →8.302.481.274.550.332
Expected From Contact
Date Outcome HR 2/3B 1B Out
2025-03-27Strikeout
2025-03-27Forceout
2024-08-09Single1%3%96%
2024-08-09Strikeout
2024-08-09Strikeout
2024-06-27Groundout24%76%
2024-06-27Lineout84%15%
2024-06-27Strikeout
2024-05-12Walk
2024-05-12Home Run69%4%27%
2023-10-03Double4%58%26%11%
2023-10-03Groundout31%68%
2023-10-03Single36%63%
2023-08-02Home Run80%13%2%5%
2023-08-02Groundout10%90%
2023-08-02Walk
2023-07-22Lineout8%91%
2023-07-22Single33%64%4%
2023-07-22Strikeout
2022-10-23Strikeout
2022-10-23Lineout58%42%
2022-10-18Strikeout
2022-10-18Lineout4%66%30%
2022-10-18Lineout5%3%92%
2022-06-16Strikeout
2022-06-16Home Run95%4%2%
2022-06-16Single2%40%58%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.