Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Nick Ahmed

matchup for Ryan Weathers

137th out of 436 (Best 32%)

Ryan Weathers

matchup for Nick Ahmed

330th out of 567 (Worst 42%)

Moderate advantage for Weathers

Nick Ahmed has a 27.2% chance of reaching base vs Ryan Weathers, which is 0.5% higher than Ahmed's typical expectations, and 2.7% lower than batters facing Weathers.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	27.2%	22.4%	1.5%	5.8%	15.1%	4.8%	23.8%
Ahmed	-0.5	+0.4	-0.7	+0.8	+0.3	-0.9	-2.0
Weathers	-2.7	+0.9	-0.6	+0.3	+1.2	-3.6	-1.0

Nick Ahmed is better vs left-handed pitching. Ryan Weathers is left handed with an extreme release toward the first base side. Ahmed has a D grade vs this particular release point.

Ryan Weathers throws a 4-seam fastball 44% of the time. Nick Ahmed has a C grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

44%

Slider (L)

25%

Changeup (L)

18%

Sinker (L)

13%

12% of Ryan Weathers's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 1% higher than the MLB average. Nick Ahmed has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Likely Ball 21%

+1%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Non-Competitive 13%

+0%

Fringe Miss 12%

Edge Painter 17%

Weak Challenge 8%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Chaser 5%

-1%

53% of Ryan Weathers's pitches are classified as Large Break Toward Third Base, which is 32% higher than the MLB average. Nick Ahmed has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Large Break 53%

+32%

Fast Velo 28%

+19%

Low Ride 37%

+14%

14.8% of Nick Ahmed's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 0.4% higher than the league average. Ryan Weathers strikes out 14.3% of the batters he faces, which is 2.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

14%

Strikeout +0.4% -2.1% 5%

Walk -2.8% -0.6% 39%

In Play +2.4% +2.7% 39%

On Base -2.4% +0.9% 31%

Hit +0.4% +1.5% 14%

Single +0.5% +0.9% 13%

2B / 3B +0.9% +1.2% 3%

Home Run -1.0% -0.5%

42.2% of Nick Ahmed's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 7.7% higher than the league average. Ryan Weathers induces Standard Grounders at a 40.1% rate, which is 5.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.7% +0.3% 34%

Standard Grounder +7.7% +5.7% 7%

Hard Grounder -1.6% -0.6% 14%

Low Screamer -3.6% -1.1% 9%

Rising Liner +0.2% -1.3% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.9% +1.4% 3%

Likely Homer -1.1% -0.7% 1%

No Doubter -1.1% +0.5% 20%

Routine Flyout -0.1% -5.5% 3%

Pop up -0.2% +1.2%

14.6% of Nick Ahmed's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 9.7% lower than the league average. 25.4% of batted balls allowed by Ryan Weathers are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +2.1% +0.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph +2.2% +1.0% 18%

87 to 93 mph +2.3% -0.7% 19%

94 to 99 mph +3.1% -2.0% 24%

Above 100 mph -9.7% +1.1%

8.9% of Nick Ahmed's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.5% lower than the league average. 7.7% of batted balls allowed by Ryan Weathers are hit at this angle, which is 3.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +8.2% +3.9% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.6% +2.6% 8%

1 to 6° -0.8% +1.2% 18%

7 to 18° -0.7% -3.3% 15%

19 to 28° -0.9% +0.1% 11%

29 to 38° -2.5% -3.8% 7%

39 to 50° -0.8% +0.2% 8%

Above 50° -1.9% -0.9%

Nick Ahmed has 4 plate appearances against Ryan Weathers in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 4 with a strikeout.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	4	4	2	0	0	2	1	0	0.500
Expected From Contact →			1.91	0.01	0.02	1.89			0.479

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-04-16	Single
2024-04-16	Strikeout
2023-04-03	Pop Out			1%	98%
2023-04-03	Single

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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