Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Max Kepler

matchup for Jared Jones

307th out of 436 (Worst 30%)

Jared Jones

matchup for Max Kepler

285th out of 567 (Best 51%)

Leans in favor of Kepler

Max Kepler has a 31.2% chance of reaching base vs Jared Jones, which is 0.0% higher than Kepler's typical expectations, and 0.1% higher than batters facing Jones.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	31.2%	21.7%	2.8%	6.5%	12.4%	9.4%	27.2%
Kepler	+0.0	-1.0	+0.3	+1.0	-2.2	+1.0	+2.6
Jones	+0.1	+0.9	-0.1	+1.5	-0.4	-0.8	-1.4

Max Kepler is better vs right-handed pitching. Jared Jones is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Kepler has an A- grade vs this particular release point.

Jared Jones throws a 4-seam fastball 49% of the time. Max Kepler has an A grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

49%

Slider (R)

35%

Curve (R)

Changeup (R)

17% of Jared Jones's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 6% higher than the MLB average. Max Kepler has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 17%

+6%

Strong Challenge 8%

+3%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Chaser 6%

Likely Ball 18%

-1%

Fringe Miss 11%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

Weak Challenge 6%

-2%

Meatball 3%

-4%

36% of Jared Jones's pitches are classified as Medium Break Toward Third Base, which is 16% higher than the MLB average. Max Kepler has a B grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Break 36%

+16%

Extreme Fast Velo 18%

+15%

Breaking (R) 44%

+13%

High Ride 22%

+11%

13.1% of Max Kepler's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.5% lower than the league average. Jared Jones strikes out 15.6% of the batters he faces, which is 0.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -2.5% +0.4% 5%

Walk -1.2% +0.6% 38%

In Play +3.7% -1.1% 39%

On Base -1.5% -0.1% 31%

Hit -0.3% -0.8% 14%

Single +0.2% -1.1% 13%

2B / 3B -0.1% -0.5% 3%

Home Run -0.4% +0.9%

29.1% of Max Kepler's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.3% lower than the league average. Jared Jones induces Standard Grounders at a 30.0% rate, which is 4.4% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.4% -0.2% 34%

Standard Grounder -5.3% -4.4% 7%

Hard Grounder +2.5% +0.4% 14%

Low Screamer +1.9% -2.4% 9%

Rising Liner -0.9% +1.0% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.2% +1.5% 3%

Likely Homer -0.1% -0.1% 1%

No Doubter -0.6% +0.2% 20%

Routine Flyout +1.5% +1.5% 3%

Pop up +0.3% +2.5%

28.3% of Max Kepler's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 4.0% higher than the league average. 24.7% of batted balls allowed by Jared Jones are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -1.1% +1.4% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.0% -4.2% 18%

87 to 93 mph -3.4% -2.8% 19%

94 to 99 mph -0.4% +5.2% 24%

Above 100 mph +4.0% +0.4%

12.1% of Max Kepler's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.6% higher than the league average. 8.9% of batted balls allowed by Jared Jones are hit at this angle, which is 2.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -1.8% +1.2% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.3% -0.1% 8%

1 to 6° +0.6% -2.6% 18%

7 to 18° -1.6% -1.8% 15%

19 to 28° -0.5% +4.0% 11%

29 to 38° +0.6% -2.6% 7%

39 to 50° +1.1% -0.5% 8%

Above 50° +1.8% +2.4%

Max Kepler has 3 plate appearances against Jared Jones in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 2 with a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	2	1	0	0	1	0	1	0.500
Expected From Contact →			0.73	0.00	0.31	0.41			0.363

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-06-09	Lineout		31%	38%	31%
2024-06-09	Single			3%	96%
2024-06-09	Walk

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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