Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Max Kepler

matchup for Tim Herrin

325th out of 436 (Worst 26%)

Tim Herrin

matchup for Max Kepler

336th out of 564 (Worst 41%)

Leans in favor of Kepler

Max Kepler has a 31.9% chance of reaching base vs Tim Herrin, which is 0.8% higher than Kepler's typical expectations, and 1.1% higher than batters facing Herrin.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	31.9%	21.3%	2.2%	5.1%	13.9%	10.6%	26.3%
Kepler	+0.8	-1.4	-0.3	-0.4	-0.7	+2.2	+1.8
Herrin	+1.1	+1.4	+0.1	+0.9	+0.5	-0.3	-0.9

Max Kepler is worse vs left-handed pitching. Tim Herrin is left handed with a horizontal release toward the first base side. Kepler has a B- grade vs this particular release point.

Tim Herrin throws a Slider 33% of the time. Max Kepler has a B grade against left-handed Sliders

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Slider (L)

33%

4-Seam (L)

31%

Curve (L)

26%

Sinker (L)

10%

21% of Tim Herrin's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Max Kepler has a D+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 21%

+2%

Weak Challenge 11%

+2%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Mid Challenge 13%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

Fringe Miss 11%

-1%

Non-Competitive 10%

-3%

Meatball 3%

-3%

59% of Tim Herrin's pitches are classified as Breaking Pitches, which is 29% higher than the MLB average. Max Kepler has a C+ grade against this type of pitch from left handers.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Breaking (L) 59%

+29%

Small Drop 29%

+17%

Very Fast Velo 16%

+13%

Medium Break 20%

+11%

13.1% of Max Kepler's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.5% lower than the league average. Tim Herrin strikes out 18.1% of the batters he faces, which is 1.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -2.5% +1.8% 5%

Walk -1.2% +1.9% 38%

In Play +3.7% -3.7% 39%

On Base -1.5% -3.4% 31%

Hit -0.3% -5.3% 14%

Single +0.2% -2.2% 13%

2B / 3B -0.1% -2.1% 3%

Home Run -0.4% -1.0%

29.1% of Max Kepler's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.3% lower than the league average. Tim Herrin induces Standard Grounders at a 44.5% rate, which is 10.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.4% -0.5% 34%

Standard Grounder -5.3% +10.1% 7%

Hard Grounder +2.5% -1.9% 14%

Low Screamer +1.9% +1.4% 9%

Rising Liner -0.9% +1.4% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.2% -0.9% 3%

Likely Homer -0.1% -1.0% 1%

No Doubter -0.6% -0.4% 20%

Routine Flyout +1.5% -8.0% 3%

Pop up +0.3% -0.3%

28.3% of Max Kepler's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 4.0% higher than the league average. 19.6% of batted balls allowed by Tim Herrin are hit at above 100 mph, which is 4.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -1.1% +6.8% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.0% +1.8% 18%

87 to 93 mph -3.4% -5.2% 19%

94 to 99 mph -0.4% +1.3% 24%

Above 100 mph +4.0% -4.8%

12.1% of Max Kepler's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.6% higher than the league average. 5.8% of batted balls allowed by Tim Herrin are hit at this angle, which is 5.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -1.8% +6.8% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.3% +1.1% 8%

1 to 6° +0.6% +0.8% 18%

7 to 18° -1.6% +2.2% 15%

19 to 28° -0.5% -4.3% 11%

29 to 38° +0.6% -5.6% 7%

39 to 50° +1.1% +0.3% 8%

Above 50° +1.8% -1.3%

Max Kepler has 1 plate appearance against Tim Herrin in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 1 with a strikeout.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00			0.000

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-08-09	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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