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Max Kepler

matchup for Dylan Cease

106th out of 436 (Best 25%)

Dylan Cease

matchup for Max Kepler

521st out of 567 (Worst 8%)

Strong advantage for Cease

Max Kepler has a 26.7% chance of reaching base vs Dylan Cease, which is 4.5% lower than Kepler's typical expectations, and 3.2% lower than batters facing Cease.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	26.7%	18.5%	2.0%	4.4%	12.1%	8.2%	28.4%
Kepler	-4.5	-4.3	-0.5	-1.2	-2.6	-0.2	+3.8
Cease	-3.2	-1.2	-0.1	0.0	-1.1	-2.0	+1.9

Max Kepler is better vs right-handed pitching. Dylan Cease is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Kepler has an A- grade vs this particular release point.

Dylan Cease throws a Slider 43% of the time. Max Kepler has a D+ grade against right-handed Sliders

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Slider (R)

43%

4-Seam (R)

42%

Kn-Curve (R)

12%

23% of Dylan Cease's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 4% higher than the MLB average. Max Kepler has a D+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 23%

+4%

Strong Challenge 7%

+2%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Edge Painter 16%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

Weak Challenge 6%

-2%

Meatball 3%

-3%

55% of Dylan Cease's pitches are classified as Breaking Pitches, which is 24% higher than the MLB average. Max Kepler has a C grade against this type of pitch from right handers.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Breaking (R) 55%

+24%

Minimal Break 30%

+21%

Very Fast Velo 23%

+15%

High Ride 22%

+12%

13.1% of Max Kepler's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.5% lower than the league average. Dylan Cease strikes out 19.1% of the batters he faces, which is 6.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -2.5% +6.3% 5%

Walk -1.2% +1.0% 38%

In Play +3.7% -7.3% 39%

On Base -1.5% -3.9% 31%

Hit -0.3% -4.8% 14%

Single +0.2% -2.5% 13%

2B / 3B -0.1% -2.0% 3%

Home Run -0.4% -0.3%

29.1% of Max Kepler's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.3% lower than the league average. Dylan Cease induces Standard Grounders at a 31.2% rate, which is 3.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.4% +0.6% 34%

Standard Grounder -5.3% -3.3% 7%

Hard Grounder +2.5% -2.0% 14%

Low Screamer +1.9% +1.9% 9%

Rising Liner -0.9% +2.0% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.2% -0.7% 3%

Likely Homer -0.1% +1.4% 1%

No Doubter -0.6% +0.3% 20%

Routine Flyout +1.5% -1.7% 3%

Pop up +0.3% +1.5%

28.3% of Max Kepler's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 4.0% higher than the league average. 25.3% of batted balls allowed by Dylan Cease are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -1.1% -0.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.0% +2.0% 18%

87 to 93 mph -3.4% -1.4% 19%

94 to 99 mph -0.4% -1.0% 24%

Above 100 mph +4.0% +1.0%

12.1% of Max Kepler's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.6% higher than the league average. 11.1% of batted balls allowed by Dylan Cease are hit at this angle, which is 0.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -1.8% -0.1% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.3% -1.6% 8%

1 to 6° +0.6% -1.5% 18%

7 to 18° -1.6% +0.1% 15%

19 to 28° -0.5% +0.6% 11%

29 to 38° +0.6% -0.3% 7%

39 to 50° +1.1% -0.5% 8%

Above 50° +1.8% +3.3%

Max Kepler has 11 plate appearances against Dylan Cease in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 10 with a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	11	10	0	0	0	0	3	1	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.87	0.46	0.18	0.23			0.087

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-07-22	Flyout				100%
2023-07-22	Strikeout
2023-07-22	Lineout		5%	4%	91%
2023-05-03	Walk
2023-05-03	Flyout				100%
2023-05-03	Strikeout
2022-09-03	Flyout		1%	1%	97%
2022-09-03	Groundout		5%	9%	86%
2022-07-17	Strikeout
2022-07-17	Groundout			8%	92%
2022-07-17	Flyout	45%	6%		48%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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