Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Max Kepler

matchup for Chad Green

134th out of 436 (Best 32%)

Chad Green

matchup for Max Kepler

503rd out of 567 (Worst 11%)

Strong advantage for Green

Max Kepler has a 24.7% chance of reaching base vs Chad Green, which is 6.4% lower than Kepler's typical expectations, and 2.0% lower than batters facing Green.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	24.7%	18.9%	2.8%	5.0%	11.0%	5.8%	24.4%
Kepler	-6.4	-3.8	+0.3	-0.5	-3.6	-2.6	-0.2
Green	-2.0	-1.3	-0.5	+0.0	-0.8	-0.8	-0.7

Max Kepler is better vs right-handed pitching. Chad Green is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Kepler has an A- grade vs this particular release point.

Chad Green throws a 4-seam fastball 72% of the time. Max Kepler has an A grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

72%

Slider (R)

14%

Curve (R)

11%

16% of Chad Green's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 5% higher than the MLB average. Max Kepler has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 16%

+5%

Strong Challenge 8%

+3%

Edge Painter 17%

+0%

Likely Ball 20%

+0%

Fringe Miss 12%

Chaser 6%

Non-Competitive 10%

-3%

Meatball 3%

-3%

Weak Challenge 5%

-3%

47% of Chad Green's pitches are classified as Medium Break Toward Third Base, which is 28% higher than the MLB average. Max Kepler has a B grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Break 47%

+28%

High Ride 37%

+27%

Very Fast Velo 34%

+26%

Fastball (R) 73%

+20%

13.1% of Max Kepler's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.5% lower than the league average. Chad Green strikes out 21.3% of the batters he faces, which is 9.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -2.5% +9.3% 5%

Walk -1.2% -3.9% 38%

In Play +3.7% -5.4% 39%

On Base -1.5% -8.6% 31%

Hit -0.3% -4.7% 14%

Single +0.2% -2.2% 13%

2B / 3B -0.1% -2.9% 3%

Home Run -0.4% +0.3%

29.1% of Max Kepler's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.3% lower than the league average. Chad Green induces Standard Grounders at a 25.6% rate, which is 8.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.4% -0.7% 34%

Standard Grounder -5.3% -8.8% 7%

Hard Grounder +2.5% -0.7% 14%

Low Screamer +1.9% -2.9% 9%

Rising Liner -0.9% -0.8% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.2% +1.4% 3%

Likely Homer -0.1% +1.4% 1%

No Doubter -0.6% -0.2% 20%

Routine Flyout +1.5% +9.5% 3%

Pop up +0.3% +1.8%

28.3% of Max Kepler's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 4.0% higher than the league average. 27.9% of batted balls allowed by Chad Green are hit at above 100 mph, which is 3.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -1.1% -4.9% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.0% -4.9% 18%

87 to 93 mph -3.4% +2.0% 19%

94 to 99 mph -0.4% +4.2% 24%

Above 100 mph +4.0% +3.6%

12.1% of Max Kepler's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.6% higher than the league average. 15.0% of batted balls allowed by Chad Green are hit at this angle, which is 3.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -1.8% -3.9% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.3% -2.8% 8%

1 to 6° +0.6% -2.3% 18%

7 to 18° -1.6% -2.5% 15%

19 to 28° -0.5% +0.9% 11%

29 to 38° +0.6% +3.5% 7%

39 to 50° +1.1% +1.3% 8%

Above 50° +1.8% +5.8%

Max Kepler has 1 plate appearance against Chad Green in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 1 with a strikeout.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00			0.000

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-09-01	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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