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Max Kepler

matchup for Seth Lugo

250th out of 436 (Worst 43%)

Seth Lugo

matchup for Max Kepler

211st out of 567 (Best 38%)

Moderate advantage for Kepler

Max Kepler has a 32.0% chance of reaching base vs Seth Lugo, which is 0.8% higher than Kepler's typical expectations, and 0.5% higher than batters facing Lugo.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	32.0%	24.8%	3.3%	5.5%	16.1%	7.1%	25.5%
Kepler	+0.8	+2.1	+0.8	-0.1	+1.4	-1.3	+0.9
Lugo	-0.5	+0.9	+0.2	+0.5	+0.2	-1.4	+0.6

Max Kepler is better vs right-handed pitching. Seth Lugo is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Kepler has an A- grade vs this particular release point.

Seth Lugo throws a 4-seam fastball 29% of the time. Max Kepler has an A grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

29%

Curve (R)

28%

Sinker (R)

17%

Slider (R)

13%

Changeup (R)

10% of Seth Lugo's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Max Kepler has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 10%

+2%

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Chaser 6%

Non-Competitive 12%

-1%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Likely Ball 18%

-1%

25% of Seth Lugo's pitches are classified as Extreme Drop, which is 20% higher than the MLB average. Max Kepler has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Drop 25%

+20%

Large Break 18%

+13%

Extreme Slow Velo 16%

+11%

Breaking (R) 41%

+10%

13.1% of Max Kepler's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.5% lower than the league average. Seth Lugo strikes out 16.5% of the batters he faces, which is 0.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -2.5% +0.8% 5%

Walk -1.2% -2.3% 38%

In Play +3.7% +1.4% 39%

On Base -1.5% -0.4% 31%

Hit -0.3% +1.9% 14%

Single +0.2% +0.7% 13%

2B / 3B -0.1% +1.1% 3%

Home Run -0.4% +0.1%

29.1% of Max Kepler's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.3% lower than the league average. Seth Lugo induces Standard Grounders at a 36.3% rate, which is 1.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.4% +1.4% 34%

Standard Grounder -5.3% +1.9% 7%

Hard Grounder +2.5% -1.6% 14%

Low Screamer +1.9% +0.5% 9%

Rising Liner -0.9% -1.0% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.2% -0.5% 3%

Likely Homer -0.1% +2.1% 1%

No Doubter -0.6% -0.5% 20%

Routine Flyout +1.5% -0.1% 3%

Pop up +0.3% -2.2%

28.3% of Max Kepler's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 4.0% higher than the league average. 22.7% of batted balls allowed by Seth Lugo are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -1.1% +1.3% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.0% +0.9% 18%

87 to 93 mph -3.4% -1.4% 19%

94 to 99 mph -0.4% +0.8% 24%

Above 100 mph +4.0% -1.6%

12.1% of Max Kepler's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.6% higher than the league average. 14.0% of batted balls allowed by Seth Lugo are hit at this angle, which is 2.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -1.8% +2.2% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.3% -0.2% 8%

1 to 6° +0.6% +1.3% 18%

7 to 18° -1.6% -2.0% 15%

19 to 28° -0.5% -1.4% 11%

29 to 38° +0.6% +2.6% 7%

39 to 50° +1.1% +0.4% 8%

Above 50° +1.8% -2.9%

Max Kepler has 9 plate appearances against Seth Lugo in the last 3 years. He is 4 for 9 with a home run and a double and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	9	9	4	1	1	2	2	0	0.444
Expected From Contact →			3.11	0.98	0.99	1.13			0.345

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-08-13	Groundout
2024-08-13	Strikeout
2024-08-13	Single			46%	54%
2024-05-29	Single		3%	53%	44%
2024-05-29	Lineout		74%	2%	23%
2024-05-29	Strikeout
2023-05-10	Home Run	96%	2%		1%
2023-05-10	Groundout			9%	91%
2023-05-10	Double		19%	3%	76%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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