Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Max Kepler

matchup for Yusei Kikuchi

348th out of 436 (Worst 20%)

Yusei Kikuchi

matchup for Max Kepler

425th out of 564 (Worst 25%)

Leans in favor of Kikuchi

Max Kepler has a 27.8% chance of reaching base vs Yusei Kikuchi, which is 3.8% lower than Kepler's typical expectations, and 1.2% higher than batters facing Kikuchi.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	27.8%	21.8%	3.5%	5.5%	12.8%	6.1%	28.4%
Kepler	-3.8	-1.0	+1.0	-0.1	-1.8	-2.9	+4.7
Kikuchi	+1.2	+1.2	+0.8	+0.7	-0.3	+0.0	-1.1

Max Kepler is worse vs left-handed pitching. Yusei Kikuchi is left handed with a horizontal release toward the first base side. Kepler has a B- grade vs this particular release point.

Yusei Kikuchi throws a 4-seam fastball 44% of the time. Max Kepler has a D+ grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

44%

Slider (L)

24%

Changeup (L)

11%

Curve (L)

11%

Cutter (L)

7% of Yusei Kikuchi's pitches are classified as Strong Challenges, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Max Kepler has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Strong Challenge 7%

+2%

Mid Challenge 13%

+2%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Non-Competitive 13%

+0%

Edge Painter 17%

+0%

Chaser 6%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Weak Challenge 7%

-2%

Likely Ball 18%

-2%

28% of Yusei Kikuchi's pitches are classified as Fast Velocity, which is 18% higher than the MLB average. Max Kepler has an A- grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Fast Velo 28%

+18%

Minimal Break 18%

+8%

Medium Ride 22%

+8%

13.1% of Max Kepler's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.5% lower than the league average. Yusei Kikuchi strikes out 18.3% of the batters he faces, which is 4.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -2.5% +4.3% 5%

Walk -1.2% -1.4% 38%

In Play +3.7% -2.8% 39%

On Base -1.5% -0.9% 31%

Hit -0.3% +0.5% 14%

Single +0.2% +0.1% 13%

2B / 3B -0.1% +0.3% 3%

Home Run -0.4% +0.2%

29.1% of Max Kepler's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.3% lower than the league average. Yusei Kikuchi induces Standard Grounders at a 36.0% rate, which is 1.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.4% -0.5% 34%

Standard Grounder -5.3% +1.6% 7%

Hard Grounder +2.5% +0.6% 14%

Low Screamer +1.9% -2.7% 9%

Rising Liner -0.9% -1.2% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.2% +0.5% 3%

Likely Homer -0.1% +0.7% 1%

No Doubter -0.6% +1.1% 20%

Routine Flyout +1.5% +0.4% 3%

Pop up +0.3% -0.4%

28.3% of Max Kepler's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 4.0% higher than the league average. 28.0% of batted balls allowed by Yusei Kikuchi are hit at above 100 mph, which is 3.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -1.1% -2.3% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.0% -1.5% 18%

87 to 93 mph -3.4% -1.0% 19%

94 to 99 mph -0.4% +1.0% 24%

Above 100 mph +4.0% +3.7%

12.1% of Max Kepler's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.6% higher than the league average. 12.7% of batted balls allowed by Yusei Kikuchi are hit at this angle, which is 1.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -1.8% +0.6% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.3% +1.7% 8%

1 to 6° +0.6% +0.8% 18%

7 to 18° -1.6% -3.4% 15%

19 to 28° -0.5% -0.3% 11%

29 to 38° +0.6% +1.3% 7%

39 to 50° +1.1% +0.9% 8%

Above 50° +1.8% -1.7%

Max Kepler has 1 plate appearance against Yusei Kikuchi in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 1.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	1.000
Expected From Contact →			0.12	0.00	0.00	0.12			0.118

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-10-04	Single			12%	88%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine Log InSubscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe