Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Max Kepler

matchup for Lance Lynn

95th out of 436 (Best 23%)

Lance Lynn

matchup for Max Kepler

266th out of 567 (Best 48%)

Moderate advantage for Kepler

Max Kepler has a 31.0% chance of reaching base vs Lance Lynn, which is 0.2% higher than Kepler's typical expectations, and 1.9% lower than batters facing Lynn.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	31.0%	23.5%	2.6%	5.7%	15.3%	7.5%	21.0%
Kepler	-0.2	+0.8	+0.0	+0.1	+0.6	-1.0	-3.6
Lynn	-1.9	-0.6	-0.5	-0.1	+0.0	-1.3	+1.3

Max Kepler is better vs right-handed pitching. Lance Lynn is right handed with an extreme release toward the third base side. Kepler has a B grade vs this particular release point.

Lance Lynn throws a 4-seam fastball 44% of the time. Max Kepler has an A grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

44%

Cutter (R)

25%

Sinker (R)

16%

Curve (R)

Changeup (R)

7% of Lance Lynn's pitches are classified as Meatballs, which is 1% higher than the MLB average. Max Kepler has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Meatball 7%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Chaser 7%

+0%

Likely Ball 20%

+0%

Mid Challenge 11%

+0%

Strong Challenge 5%

Non-Competitive 13%

Fringe Miss 12%

Weak Challenge 7%

-1%

85% of Lance Lynn's pitches are classified as Fastball Pitches, which is 32% higher than the MLB average. Max Kepler has an A- grade against this type of pitch from right handers.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Fastball (R) 85%

+32%

Medium Fast Velo 30%

+15%

Low Ride 36%

+12%

Small Break 19%

+10%

13.1% of Max Kepler's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.5% lower than the league average. Lance Lynn strikes out 15.4% of the batters he faces, which is 1.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -2.5% +1.3% 5%

Walk -1.2% -1.6% 38%

In Play +3.7% +0.3% 39%

On Base -1.5% -2.3% 31%

Hit -0.3% -0.6% 14%

Single +0.2% -0.1% 13%

2B / 3B -0.1% -0.1% 3%

Home Run -0.4% -0.4%

29.1% of Max Kepler's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.3% lower than the league average. Lance Lynn induces Standard Grounders at a 32.0% rate, which is 2.4% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.4% -0.3% 34%

Standard Grounder -5.3% -2.4% 7%

Hard Grounder +2.5% -1.8% 14%

Low Screamer +1.9% +2.4% 9%

Rising Liner -0.9% -0.4% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.2% -0.3% 3%

Likely Homer -0.1% +0.7% 1%

No Doubter -0.6% -0.2% 20%

Routine Flyout +1.5% +0.7% 3%

Pop up +0.3% +1.6%

28.3% of Max Kepler's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 4.0% higher than the league average. 23.9% of batted balls allowed by Lance Lynn are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.4% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -1.1% +0.4% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.0% +1.8% 18%

87 to 93 mph -3.4% -0.6% 19%

94 to 99 mph -0.4% -1.2% 24%

Above 100 mph +4.0% -0.4%

12.1% of Max Kepler's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.6% higher than the league average. 10.9% of batted balls allowed by Lance Lynn are hit at this angle, which is 0.5% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -1.8% -2.2% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.3% -0.3% 8%

1 to 6° +0.6% -2.7% 18%

7 to 18° -1.6% +1.7% 15%

19 to 28° -0.5% +0.4% 11%

29 to 38° +0.6% -0.5% 7%

39 to 50° +1.1% +1.2% 8%

Above 50° +1.8% +2.4%

Max Kepler has 9 plate appearances against Lance Lynn in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 8 with a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	9	8	2	0	0	2	1	1	0.250
Expected From Contact →			1.91	0.00	0.04	1.87			0.239

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-07-21	Lineout		2%	18%	80%
2023-07-21	Single			9%	91%
2023-07-21	GIDP			42%	57%
2022-07-16	Single			21%	79%
2022-07-16	Lineout			91%	9%
2022-07-16	Strikeout
2022-07-06	Groundout			5%	95%
2022-07-06	Walk
2022-07-06	Flyout				99%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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