Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Javier Baez

matchup for Michael Wacha

229th out of 436 (Worst 48%)

Michael Wacha

matchup for Javier Baez

274th out of 567 (Best 49%)

Leans in favor of Baez

Javier Baez has a 29.5% chance of reaching base vs Michael Wacha, which is 0.4% higher than Baez's typical expectations, and 1.7% lower than batters facing Wacha.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	29.5%	24.1%	3.3%	5.6%	15.2%	5.4%	21.6%
Baez	-0.4	+0.3	+0.1	+0.4	-0.3	-0.7	-2.2
Wacha	-1.7	+0.9	+0.5	+0.5	-0.1	-2.6	+0.2

Javier Baez is worse vs right-handed pitching. Michael Wacha is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Baez has a B grade vs this particular release point.

Michael Wacha throws a Changeup 32% of the time. Javier Baez has an F grade against right-handed Changeups

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Changeup (R)

32%

4-Seam (R)

31%

Cutter (R)

17%

Sinker (R)

11%

Curve (R)

8% of Michael Wacha's pitches are classified as Meatballs, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Javier Baez has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Meatball 8%

+2%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Mid Challenge 12%

+0%

Weak Challenge 8%

Strong Challenge 5%

-1%

Likely Ball 18%

-2%

Non-Competitive 10%

-3%

32% of Michael Wacha's pitches are classified as Offspeed Pitches, which is 20% higher than the MLB average. Javier Baez has a D- grade against this type of pitch from right handers.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Offspeed (R) 32%

+20%

Medium Break 30%

+11%

High Ride 19%

+9%

14.6% of Javier Baez's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 0.0% lower than the league average. Michael Wacha strikes out 16.3% of the batters he faces, which is 0.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

14%

Strikeout 0.0% +0.4% 6%

Walk -3.5% -2.0% 38%

In Play +3.6% +1.5% 39%

On Base -2.5% -3.0% 31%

Hit +1.0% -1.0% 14%

Single +0.5% -0.6% 13%

2B / 3B +0.4% -0.5% 3%

Home Run +0.1% +0.1%

38.1% of Javier Baez's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 3.7% higher than the league average. Michael Wacha induces Standard Grounders at a 33.6% rate, which is 0.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.3% -0.3% 34%

Standard Grounder +3.7% -0.8% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.4% +0.5% 14%

Low Screamer -1.6% +1.5% 9%

Rising Liner +1.5% +0.7% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.2% -0.3% 3%

Likely Homer +0.3% -0.1% 1%

No Doubter +0.2% 0.0% 20%

Routine Flyout -3.5% -1.8% 3%

Pop up -0.1% +0.6%

29.5% of Javier Baez's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 5.2% higher than the league average. 26.9% of batted balls allowed by Michael Wacha are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +1.5% +0.0% 21%

75 to 86 mph -1.3% +0.4% 18%

87 to 93 mph -3.5% -0.3% 19%

94 to 99 mph -1.9% -2.7% 24%

Above 100 mph +5.2% +2.6%

11.7% of Javier Baez's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.2% higher than the league average. 10.7% of batted balls allowed by Michael Wacha are hit at this angle, which is 0.7% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +3.3% -2.9% 12%

-10 to 0° +0.5% +1.7% 8%

1 to 6° +0.0% -0.8% 18%

7 to 18° +0.3% +2.8% 15%

19 to 28° -3.4% +0.9% 11%

29 to 38° +0.2% -0.7% 7%

39 to 50° +0.1% -1.6% 8%

Above 50° -1.0% +0.6%

Javier Baez has 11 plate appearances against Michael Wacha in the last 3 years. He is 3 for 8 with a home run, 3 walks

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	11	8	3	1	0	2	0	3	0.375
Expected From Contact →			3.40	0.92	0.46	2.02			0.425

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-08-04	Walk
2024-08-04	Flyout			1%	98%
2024-08-04	Single		26%	72%	1%
2024-05-20	GIDP			4%	96%
2024-05-20	Groundout			32%	68%
2024-05-20	GIDP			5%	94%
2022-06-22	Single		13%	86%	2%
2022-06-22	Home Run	92%	5%	2%
2022-06-22	Walk
2022-04-11	Walk
2022-04-11	Flyout				100%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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