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Jurickson Profar

matchup for Jack Flaherty

415th out of 436 (Worst 5%)

Jack Flaherty

matchup for J. Profar

82nd out of 567 (Best 15%)

Extreme advantage for Profar

Jurickson Profar has a 38.4% chance of reaching base vs Jack Flaherty, which is 3.7% higher than Profar's typical expectations, and 4.2% higher than batters facing Flaherty.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	38.4%	25.4%	3.7%	6.1%	15.5%	13.0%	16.4%
Profar	+3.7	+1.7	+0.6	+0.2	+0.9	+2.0	-0.7
Flaherty	+4.2	+2.1	+0.1	+1.0	+1.0	+2.0	-6.4

Jurickson Profar is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Jack Flaherty is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Profar has a B- grade vs this particular release point.

Jack Flaherty throws a 4-seam fastball 44% of the time. Jurickson Profar has a C grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

44%

Slider (R)

27%

Kn-Curve (R)

18%

21% of Jack Flaherty's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Jurickson Profar has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 21%

+2%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Edge Painter 17%

Mid Challenge 11%

Chaser 6%

Weak Challenge 8%

Meatball 6%

Non-Competitive 12%

-1%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

45% of Jack Flaherty's pitches are classified as Breaking Pitches, which is 14% higher than the MLB average. Jurickson Profar has a D+ grade against this type of pitch from right handers.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Breaking (R) 45%

+14%

Medium Break 20%

+11%

9.9% of Jurickson Profar's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 7.9% lower than the league average. Jack Flaherty strikes out 20.5% of the batters he faces, which is 5.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Strikeout -7.9% +5.8% 3%

Walk +2.4% -1.5% 37%

In Play +5.5% -4.3% 39%

On Base +4.2% -2.0% 31%

Hit +1.8% -0.5% 14%

Single +0.5% +0.0% 13%

2B / 3B +1.0% -0.3% 3%

Home Run +0.3% -0.2%

35.0% of Jurickson Profar's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 0.6% higher than the league average. Jack Flaherty induces Standard Grounders at a 36.3% rate, which is 1.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.5% -0.2% 34%

Standard Grounder +0.6% +1.9% 7%

Hard Grounder +0.7% -1.5% 14%

Low Screamer +1.9% +1.6% 9%

Rising Liner -1.1% +0.7% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.9% -0.3% 3%

Likely Homer -0.4% +0.1% 1%

No Doubter -0.7% -0.3% 20%

Routine Flyout -1.4% -1.3% 3%

Pop up +0.8% -0.8%

20.4% of Jurickson Profar's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 3.9% lower than the league average. 21.5% of batted balls allowed by Jack Flaherty are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +0.5% +1.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph +0.6% +2.0% 18%

87 to 93 mph +2.1% +0.5% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.8% -1.3% 24%

Above 100 mph -3.9% -2.8%

12.3% of Jurickson Profar's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.8% higher than the league average. 12.2% of batted balls allowed by Jack Flaherty are hit at this angle, which is 0.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +1.1% +0.6% 12%

-10 to 0° +0.2% -1.0% 8%

1 to 6° -0.4% +0.2% 18%

7 to 18° -1.2% +1.4% 15%

19 to 28° -1.1% +0.2% 11%

29 to 38° +0.8% +0.7% 7%

39 to 50° -1.4% -0.2% 8%

Above 50° +2.0% -1.9%

Jurickson Profar has 12 plate appearances against Jack Flaherty in the last 3 years. He is 4 for 11 with 2 home runs, a double and a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	12	11	4	2	1	1	3	1	0.364
Expected From Contact →			3.10	1.53	0.54	1.03			0.282

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-10-06	Single			29%	71%
2024-10-06	Strikeout
2024-10-06	Walk
2024-09-25	Groundout			59%	41%
2024-09-25	Strikeout
2024-09-25	GIDP			7%	93%
2023-04-12	Strikeout
2023-04-12	Pop Out			1%	99%
2023-04-12	Home Run	53%	3%		43%
2022-09-22	Double	1%	48%	4%	47%
2022-09-22	Home Run	98%	1%
2022-09-22	Lineout		1%	2%	97%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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