Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Jurickson Profar

matchup for Austin Gomber

397th out of 436 (Worst 9%)

Austin Gomber

matchup for J. Profar

185th out of 567 (Best 33%)

Extreme advantage for Profar

Jurickson Profar has a 33.9% chance of reaching base vs Austin Gomber, which is 0.8% lower than Profar's typical expectations, and 2.2% higher than batters facing Gomber.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	33.9%	27.4%	3.4%	7.1%	16.8%	6.6%	10.8%
Profar	-0.8	+3.6	+0.3	+1.2	+2.1	-4.4	-6.2
Gomber	+2.2	+1.4	+0.1	+0.5	+0.9	+0.8	-7.0

Jurickson Profar is about the same vs left-handed pitching as he is against right. Austin Gomber is left handed with a horizontal release toward the first base side. Profar has a C grade vs this particular release point.

Austin Gomber throws a 4-seam fastball 42% of the time. Jurickson Profar has a D grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

42%

Slider (L)

21%

Kn-Curve (L)

18%

Changeup (L)

18%

9% of Austin Gomber's pitches are classified as Meatballs, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Jurickson Profar has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Meatball 9%

+3%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Mid Challenge 11%

Weak Challenge 9%

Likely Ball 19%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

Chaser 4%

-2%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

42% of Austin Gomber's pitches are classified as Medium Break Toward Third Base, which is 23% higher than the MLB average. Jurickson Profar has a D grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Break 42%

+23%

Extreme Drop 16%

+11%

Breaking (L) 40%

+10%

9.9% of Jurickson Profar's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 7.9% lower than the league average. Austin Gomber strikes out 13.7% of the batters he faces, which is 3.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Strikeout -7.9% -3.3% 3%

Walk +2.4% -2.5% 37%

In Play +5.5% +5.9% 39%

On Base +4.2% +0.6% 31%

Hit +1.8% +3.1% 14%

Single +0.5% +1.2% 13%

2B / 3B +1.0% +1.6% 3%

Home Run +0.3% +0.3%

35.0% of Jurickson Profar's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 0.6% higher than the league average. Austin Gomber induces Standard Grounders at a 32.5% rate, which is 1.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.5% -0.4% 34%

Standard Grounder +0.6% -1.9% 7%

Hard Grounder +0.7% +0.7% 14%

Low Screamer +1.9% +1.5% 9%

Rising Liner -1.1% +0.5% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.9% +0.6% 3%

Likely Homer -0.4% -0.5% 1%

No Doubter -0.7% -0.3% 20%

Routine Flyout -1.4% +1.5% 3%

Pop up +0.8% -1.6%

20.4% of Jurickson Profar's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 3.9% lower than the league average. 21.5% of batted balls allowed by Austin Gomber are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +0.5% -1.7% 21%

75 to 86 mph +0.6% +1.9% 18%

87 to 93 mph +2.1% -1.7% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.8% +4.3% 24%

Above 100 mph -3.9% -2.8%

12.3% of Jurickson Profar's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.8% higher than the league average. 12.1% of batted balls allowed by Austin Gomber are hit at this angle, which is 0.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +1.1% -0.7% 12%

-10 to 0° +0.2% -0.4% 8%

1 to 6° -0.4% -0.4% 18%

7 to 18° -1.2% -0.5% 15%

19 to 28° -1.1% +1.8% 11%

29 to 38° +0.8% +0.6% 7%

39 to 50° -1.4% +0.4% 8%

Above 50° +2.0% -0.8%

Jurickson Profar has 11 plate appearances against Austin Gomber in the last 3 years. He is 3 for 10 with a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	11	10	3	0	0	3	3	1	0.300
Expected From Contact →			2.79	0.00	0.15	2.64			0.279

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-08-02	Strikeout
2024-08-02	Groundout		4%	32%	64%
2024-08-02	Walk
2024-05-15	Groundout			19%	81%
2024-05-15	Flyout				99%
2024-05-15	Single			83%	17%
2024-04-22	Flyout		1%		99%
2024-04-22	Strikeout
2024-04-22	Single		6%	91%	3%
2022-08-02	Single		3%	39%	58%
2022-08-02	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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