Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Jurickson Profar

matchup for Patrick Corbin

426th out of 436 (Worst 3%)

Patrick Corbin

matchup for J. Profar

87th out of 567 (Best 16%)

Extreme advantage for Profar

Jurickson Profar has a 36.6% chance of reaching base vs Patrick Corbin, which is 1.9% higher than Profar's typical expectations, and 3.6% higher than batters facing Corbin.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	36.6%	27.9%	4.2%	6.1%	17.7%	8.7%	13.6%
Profar	+1.9	+4.2	+1.0	+0.2	+3.0	-2.3	-3.4
Corbin	+3.6	+2.6	+1.5	+0.3	+0.8	+1.0	-8.0

Jurickson Profar is about the same vs left-handed pitching as he is against right. Patrick Corbin is left handed with a horizontal release toward the first base side. Profar has a C grade vs this particular release point.

Patrick Corbin throws a Sinker 38% of the time. Jurickson Profar has a B grade against left-handed Sinkers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Sinker (L)

38%

Slider (L)

34%

4-Seam (L)

16%

Changeup (L)

Cutter (L)

23% of Patrick Corbin's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Jurickson Profar has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 23%

+3%

Weak Challenge 10%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Chaser 6%

+0%

Edge Painter 17%

+0%

Mid Challenge 11%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

Non-Competitive 9%

-3%

45% of Patrick Corbin's pitches are classified as Low Ride, which is 21% higher than the MLB average. Jurickson Profar has an A- grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Low Ride 45%

+21%

Minimal Break 23%

+13%

Medium Fast Velo 27%

+11%

9.9% of Jurickson Profar's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 7.9% lower than the league average. Patrick Corbin strikes out 17.4% of the batters he faces, which is 2.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Strikeout -7.9% +2.1% 3%

Walk +2.4% -2.5% 37%

In Play +5.5% +0.4% 39%

On Base +4.2% -0.7% 31%

Hit +1.8% +1.8% 14%

Single +0.5% +1.2% 13%

2B / 3B +1.0% +1.2% 3%

Home Run +0.3% -0.7%

35.0% of Jurickson Profar's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 0.6% higher than the league average. Patrick Corbin induces Standard Grounders at a 37.2% rate, which is 2.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.5% -0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder +0.6% +2.8% 7%

Hard Grounder +0.7% +2.4% 14%

Low Screamer +1.9% -2.1% 9%

Rising Liner -1.1% +1.9% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.9% -0.5% 3%

Likely Homer -0.4% -0.1% 1%

No Doubter -0.7% -0.1% 20%

Routine Flyout -1.4% -3.5% 3%

Pop up +0.8% -0.7%

20.4% of Jurickson Profar's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 3.9% lower than the league average. 29.8% of batted balls allowed by Patrick Corbin are hit at above 100 mph, which is 5.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +0.5% -2.4% 21%

75 to 86 mph +0.6% +1.1% 18%

87 to 93 mph +2.1% -2.7% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.8% -1.4% 24%

Above 100 mph -3.9% +5.5%

12.3% of Jurickson Profar's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.8% higher than the league average. 10.3% of batted balls allowed by Patrick Corbin are hit at this angle, which is 1.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +1.1% +1.7% 12%

-10 to 0° +0.2% +0.9% 8%

1 to 6° -0.4% +3.4% 18%

7 to 18° -1.2% +0.8% 15%

19 to 28° -1.1% -2.1% 11%

29 to 38° +0.8% -1.1% 7%

39 to 50° -1.4% -2.2% 8%

Above 50° +2.0% -1.4%

Jurickson Profar has 12 plate appearances against Patrick Corbin in the last 3 years. He is 3 for 10 with a double and 2 walks

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	12	10	3	0	1	2	1	2	0.300
Expected From Contact →			4.36	0.07	1.49	2.81			0.436

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-07-25	Strikeout
2024-07-25	Groundout			37%	63%
2024-07-25	Double		62%	10%	28%
2024-06-24	Groundout		54%	14%	32%
2024-06-24	Lineout		3%	2%	94%
2024-06-24	Groundout		15%	10%	75%
2023-07-24	GIDP			38%	62%
2023-07-24	Walk
2023-07-24	Flyout	7%	2%	1%	90%
2022-08-21	Single		9%	76%	15%
2022-08-21	Walk
2022-08-21	Single		3%	92%	5%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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