Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Adam Duvall

matchup for Aaron Civale

46th out of 436 (Best 11%)

Aaron Civale

matchup for Adam Duvall

358th out of 567 (Worst 37%)

Strong advantage for Civale

Adam Duvall has a 24.9% chance of reaching base vs Aaron Civale, which is 2.1% lower than Duvall's typical expectations, and 4.6% lower than batters facing Civale.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	24.9%	18.6%	4.2%	4.3%	10.2%	6.2%	32.9%
Duvall	-2.1	-1.5	+0.6	-1.0	-1.1	-0.6	-0.7
Civale	-4.6	-2.8	+1.0	-0.1	-3.8	-1.8	+11.5

Adam Duvall is worse vs right-handed pitching. Aaron Civale is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Duvall has a B+ grade vs this particular release point.

Aaron Civale throws a Cutter 32% of the time. Adam Duvall has an A+ grade against right-handed Cutters

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Cutter (R)

32%

Sinker (R)

21%

Curve (R)

20%

4-Seam (R)

11%

Slider (R)

10%

21% of Aaron Civale's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Adam Duvall has a D grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 21%

+2%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Strong Challenge 5%

Weak Challenge 8%

Meatball 6%

Mid Challenge 10%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

20% of Aaron Civale's pitches are classified as Extreme Drop, which is 15% higher than the MLB average. Adam Duvall has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Drop 20%

+15%

Medium Break 24%

+15%

Extreme Slow Velo 16%

+11%

Fastball (R) 64%

+10%

18.8% of Adam Duvall's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 7.1% higher than the league average. Aaron Civale strikes out 16.0% of the batters he faces, which is 0.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

11%

Strikeout +7.1% +0.4% 5%

Walk -2.3% -1.3% 42%

In Play -4.8% +1.0% 39%

On Base -9.7% -0.9% 31%

Hit -7.4% +0.5% 14%

Single -5.5% 0.0% 13%

2B / 3B -5.1% +0.3% 3%

Home Run +3.2% +0.1%

21.8% of Adam Duvall's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 12.7% lower than the league average. Aaron Civale induces Standard Grounders at a 34.5% rate, which is 0.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.3% -0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder -12.7% +0.1% 7%

Hard Grounder -2.9% -0.7% 14%

Low Screamer +3.8% -1.3% 9%

Rising Liner -2.3% +1.8% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.4% -1.1% 3%

Likely Homer +3.2% +0.2% 1%

No Doubter +2.6% +0.1% 20%

Routine Flyout +4.9% -0.7% 3%

Pop up +3.1% +1.8%

25.9% of Adam Duvall's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 1.6% higher than the league average. 25.0% of batted balls allowed by Aaron Civale are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +1.2% +0.4% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.3% +1.9% 18%

87 to 93 mph -2.8% +0.0% 19%

94 to 99 mph -1.2% -3.0% 24%

Above 100 mph +1.6% +0.7%

18.4% of Adam Duvall's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 6.9% higher than the league average. 11.7% of batted balls allowed by Aaron Civale are hit at this angle, which is 0.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -8.7% -0.8% 12%

-10 to 0° -3.5% -0.4% 8%

1 to 6° -3.6% +0.7% 18%

7 to 18° -5.2% -1.1% 15%

19 to 28° +2.0% +0.4% 11%

29 to 38° +6.9% +0.2% 7%

39 to 50° +3.2% -0.2% 8%

Above 50° +8.8% +1.2%

Adam Duvall has 2 plate appearances against Aaron Civale in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 2 with a strikeout.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	2	2	1	0	0	1	1	0	0.500
Expected From Contact →			0.97	0.00	0.83	0.14			0.484

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-04	Strikeout
2023-09-04	Single		83%	14%	3%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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