Matchup Machine

Xander Bogaerts

Worst 9% of matchups for Ryan Feltner

Ryan Feltner

Best 24% of matchups for Xander Bogaerts

Extreme advantage for Bogaerts

Model Prediction
Prediction	1.9%	4.6%	16.8%	12.4%	14.5%
MLB (+/-)	-0.9	+0.4	+2.9	+2.7	-10.7
Bogaerts	-0.4	-0.2	+0.7	+2.8	-3.0
Feltner	-0.6	+0.6	+3.3	-1.0	-8.1

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

1.9%

4.6%

16.8%

12.4%

14.5%

MLB (+/-)

-0.9

+0.4

+2.9

+2.7

-10.7

Bogaerts

-0.4

-0.2

+0.7

+2.8

-3.0

Feltner

-0.6

+0.6

+3.3

-1.0

-8.1

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	.333
Expected From Contact →			0.59	0.00	0.05	0.54			.197

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-19	Groundout		4%	4%	92%
2023-09-19	Groundout			17%	82%
2023-09-19	Single			33%	67%

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
	45%	60	RHB vs RHP	43	47%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

45%

RHB vs RHP

47%

	Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
	45%	68	Fastball	47	50%
	23%	71	Breaking	40	37%
	10%	40	Offspeed	43	13%
			------------------
	43%	49	Slider	47	30%
	47%	67	Four-Seam FB	43	26%
	43%	66	Sinker	66	22%
	45%	31	Changeup	43	13%
⭐⭐	44%	96	Curveball	21	7%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

45%

Fastball

50%

23%

Breaking

37%

10%

Offspeed

13%

------------------

43%

Slider

30%

47%

Four-Seam FB

26%

43%

Sinker

22%

45%

Changeup

13%

⭐⭐

44%

Curveball

Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
71%	87	Top of zone	62	15%
57%	51	Away / Glove Side	40	13%
58%	17	Bottom of zone	65	10%	⭐
63%	60	In / Arm Side	73	10%
56%	40	Middle	59	7%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

71%

Top of zone

15%

57%

Away / Glove Side

13%

58%

Bottom of zone

10%

⭐

63%

In / Arm Side

10%

56%

Middle

	Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
	33%	72	Away / Glove Side	42	30%
	30%	25	Below the zone	16	29%
⭐	36%	81	Above the zone	22	26%
	33%	55	In / Arm Side	16	18%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

33%

Away / Glove Side

30%

Below the zone

29%

⭐

36%

Above the zone

26%

33%

In / Arm Side

18%

	Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
⭐	66%	86	2 Strikes	30	30%
	43%	35	Batter Ahead	54	29%
⭐⭐	56%	100	Batter Behind	29	28%
	18%	19	First Pitch	44	25%
	56%	79	3 Balls	67	10%
	75%	73	Full Count	60	6%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

⭐

66%

2 Strikes

30%

43%

Batter Ahead

29%

⭐⭐

56%

100

Batter Behind

28%

18%

First Pitch

25%

56%

3 Balls

10%

75%

Full Count