Matchup Machine

Xander Bogaerts

Worst 3% of matchups for Austin Gomber

Austin Gomber

Best 10% of matchups for Xander Bogaerts

Extreme advantage for Bogaerts

+10

Model Prediction
Prediction	2.6%	5.2%	20.7%	7.2%	8.8%
MLB (+/-)	-0.2	+0.9	+6.7	-2.5	-16.4
Bogaerts	+0.5	+0.2	+2.1	-1.6	-6.7
Gomber	-0.6	+0.8	+4.4	-0.7	-7.5

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

2.6%

5.2%

20.7%

7.2%

8.8%

MLB (+/-)

-0.2

+0.9

+6.7

-2.5

-16.4

Bogaerts

+0.5

+0.2

+2.1

-1.6

-6.7

Gomber

-0.6

+0.8

+4.4

-0.7

-7.5

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	9	9	3	1	1	1	0	0	.333
Expected From Contact →			3.61	1.81	0.46	1.34			.401

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-07-31	GIDP			22%	78%
2023-07-31	GIDP		2%	37%	61%
2023-07-31	Groundout		16%	8%	76%
2023-06-09	Single		8%	32%	60%
2023-06-09	Double	83%	16%		1%
2023-06-09	Groundout			23%	76%
2023-04-02	Pop Out		2%	10%	88%
2023-04-02	Flyout				99%
2023-04-02	Home Run	98%	1%

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
⭐⭐	44%	82	RHB vs LHP	-14	80%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

⭐⭐

44%

RHB vs LHP

-14

80%

	Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
⭐	45%	62	Fastball	16	45%
⭐	23%	70	Breaking	-26	37%
	11%	50	Offspeed	0	18%
			------------------
⭐	48%	63	Four-Seam FB	-3	44%
	43%	50	Slider	-6	20%
	47%	31	Changeup	0	18%
⭐	53%	61	Knuckle-Curve	-94	17%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

⭐

45%

Fastball

45%

⭐

23%

Breaking

-26

37%

11%

Offspeed

18%

------------------

⭐

48%

Four-Seam FB

-3

44%

43%

Slider

-6

20%

47%

Changeup

18%

⭐

53%

Knuckle-Curve

-94

17%

	Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
	58%	37	Bottom of zone	13	13%
⭐	70%	75	Top of zone	-3	12%
⭐⭐	62%	85	Away / Arm Side	9	11%
	60%	45	In / Glove Side	-29	10%
⭐⭐	63%	108	Middle	-23	7%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

58%

Bottom of zone

13%

⭐

70%

Top of zone

-3

12%

⭐⭐

62%

Away / Arm Side

11%

60%

In / Glove Side

-29

10%

⭐⭐

63%

108

Middle

-23

	Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
	31%	22	Below the zone	22	30%
	19%	18	In / Glove Side	30	24%
⭐⭐	35%	81	Above the zone	8	24%
	33%	40	Away / Arm Side	-3	22%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

31%

Below the zone

30%

19%

In / Glove Side

24%

⭐⭐

35%

Above the zone

24%

33%

Away / Arm Side

-3

22%

	Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
	18%	15	First Pitch	10	28%
⭐⭐	57%	100	Batter Behind	0	28%
	43%	35	Batter Ahead	4	26%
⭐⭐	67%	84	2 Strikes	-23	26%
⭐⭐	55%	84	3 Balls	2	8%
⭐	74%	69	Full Count	-9	4%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

18%

First Pitch

28%

⭐⭐

57%

100

Batter Behind

28%

43%

Batter Ahead

26%

⭐⭐

67%

2 Strikes

-23

26%

⭐⭐

55%

3 Balls

⭐

74%

Full Count

-9