Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Xander Bogaerts

matchup for Zack Wheeler

354th out of 436 (Worst 19%)

Zack Wheeler

matchup for Xander Bogaerts

539th out of 567 (Worst 5%)

Moderate advantage for Wheeler

Xander Bogaerts has a 28.0% chance of reaching base vs Zack Wheeler, which is 5.3% lower than Bogaerts's typical expectations, and 2.2% higher than batters facing Wheeler.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	28.0%	21.4%	2.4%	4.1%	14.9%	6.6%	27.4%
Bogaerts	-5.3	-3.6	0.0	-0.4	-3.1	-1.7	+8.2
Wheeler	+2.2	+3.6	-0.1	-0.3	+4.1	-1.5	-5.0

Xander Bogaerts is slightly better vs right-handed pitching. Zack Wheeler is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Bogaerts has a C+ grade vs this particular release point.

Zack Wheeler throws a 4-seam fastball 42% of the time. Xander Bogaerts has a B grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

42%

Slider (R)

21%

Sinker (R)

19%

Curve (R)

11%

13% of Zack Wheeler's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Xander Bogaerts has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 13%

+2%

Strong Challenge 7%

+2%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Likely Ball 20%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Weak Challenge 8%

Meatball 3%

-3%

Non-Competitive 9%

-4%

32% of Zack Wheeler's pitches are classified as Fast Velocity, which is 17% higher than the MLB average. Xander Bogaerts has a B- grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Fast Velo 32%

+17%

Fastball (R) 64%

+11%

10.5% of Xander Bogaerts's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 6.9% lower than the league average. Zack Wheeler strikes out 21.0% of the batters he faces, which is 7.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Strikeout -6.9% +7.9% 5%

Walk -1.8% -2.6% 36%

In Play +8.7% -5.3% 39%

On Base +5.2% -6.2% 31%

Hit +7.0% -3.6% 14%

Single +3.5% -1.3% 13%

2B / 3B +3.6% -1.2% 3%

Home Run -0.2% -1.0%

37.1% of Xander Bogaerts's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 2.7% higher than the league average. Zack Wheeler induces Standard Grounders at a 41.6% rate, which is 7.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.4% -0.6% 34%

Standard Grounder +2.7% +7.2% 7%

Hard Grounder +0.8% -1.5% 14%

Low Screamer +1.3% +1.9% 9%

Rising Liner -0.3% -1.0% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.9% -1.1% 3%

Likely Homer -0.7% -0.7% 1%

No Doubter -0.3% -0.2% 20%

Routine Flyout -1.7% -4.7% 3%

Pop up -0.5% +0.7%

24.7% of Xander Bogaerts's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 0.4% higher than the league average. 21.7% of batted balls allowed by Zack Wheeler are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -1.2% +5.7% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.9% +1.4% 18%

87 to 93 mph +0.4% -1.4% 19%

94 to 99 mph -1.4% -3.1% 24%

Above 100 mph +0.4% -2.6%

10.4% of Xander Bogaerts's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.0% lower than the league average. 10.1% of batted balls allowed by Zack Wheeler are hit at this angle, which is 1.4% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +2.7% +4.4% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.3% -0.4% 8%

1 to 6° +1.7% -0.8% 18%

7 to 18° -0.9% +0.1% 15%

19 to 28° -2.0% -0.6% 11%

29 to 38° -1.0% -1.4% 7%

39 to 50° -0.5% -0.8% 8%

Above 50° +0.2% -0.6%

Xander Bogaerts has 5 plate appearances against Zack Wheeler in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 5 with a home run and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	5	5	1	1	0	0	1	0	0.200
Expected From Contact →			0.99	0.80	0.06	0.13			0.197

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-06	Groundout			5%	95%
2023-09-06	Groundout			7%	93%
2023-07-16	Flyout		4%		95%
2023-07-16	Strikeout
2023-07-16	Home Run	80%	2%		19%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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