Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Xander Bogaerts

matchup for Chris Sale

278th out of 436 (Worst 36%)

Chris Sale

matchup for Xander Bogaerts

501st out of 567 (Worst 12%)

Leans in favor of Sale

Xander Bogaerts has a 31.3% chance of reaching base vs Chris Sale, which is 2.3% lower than Bogaerts's typical expectations, and 1.2% higher than batters facing Sale.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	31.3%	23.1%	1.6%	4.4%	17.1%	8.2%	24.5%
Bogaerts	-2.3	-2.1	-0.7	-0.3	-1.2	-0.2	+6.5
Sale	+1.2	+0.9	-0.6	-1.4	+2.9	+0.2	-8.5

Xander Bogaerts is a bit worse vs left-handed pitching. Chris Sale is left handed with an extreme release toward the first base side. Bogaerts has a B- grade vs this particular release point.

Chris Sale throws a 4-seam fastball 39% of the time. Xander Bogaerts has a C- grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

39%

Slider (L)

38%

Changeup (L)

15%

8% of Chris Sale's pitches are classified as Strong Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Xander Bogaerts has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Strong Challenge 8%

+3%

Mid Challenge 13%

+2%

Chaser 8%

+2%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Weak Challenge 9%

Likely Ball 18%

-2%

Non-Competitive 10%

-2%

Meatball 2%

-4%

46% of Chris Sale's pitches are classified as Extreme Break Toward Third Base, which is 30% higher than the MLB average. Xander Bogaerts has a C+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Break 46%

+30%

Large Drop 28%

+23%

Extreme Slow Velo 22%

+13%

Breaking (L) 38%

+8%

10.0% of Xander Bogaerts's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 7.8% lower than the league average. Chris Sale strikes out 23.3% of the batters he faces, which is 11.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Strikeout -7.8% +11.2% 5%

Walk -2.0% -2.1% 36%

In Play +9.8% -9.0% 39%

On Base +5.8% -4.7% 31%

Hit +7.7% -2.6% 14%

Single +4.0% -0.7% 13%

2B / 3B +3.8% -1.2% 3%

Home Run -0.1% -0.7%

37.1% of Xander Bogaerts's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 2.7% higher than the league average. Chris Sale induces Standard Grounders at a 35.4% rate, which is 1.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.4% -0.4% 34%

Standard Grounder +2.7% +1.0% 7%

Hard Grounder +0.8% -1.4% 14%

Low Screamer +1.3% +1.2% 9%

Rising Liner -0.3% +0.4% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.9% +1.1% 3%

Likely Homer -0.7% -1.1% 1%

No Doubter -0.3% -0.1% 20%

Routine Flyout -1.7% -0.2% 3%

Pop up -0.6% -0.5%

24.7% of Xander Bogaerts's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 0.4% higher than the league average. 21.5% of batted balls allowed by Chris Sale are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -1.2% +2.5% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.9% +3.5% 18%

87 to 93 mph +0.3% -1.1% 19%

94 to 99 mph -1.4% -2.0% 24%

Above 100 mph +0.4% -2.8%

10.4% of Xander Bogaerts's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.0% lower than the league average. 13.3% of batted balls allowed by Chris Sale are hit at this angle, which is 1.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +2.7% -0.4% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.2% -0.7% 8%

1 to 6° +1.8% +0.5% 18%

7 to 18° -1.0% -1.1% 15%

19 to 28° -2.0% +0.5% 11%

29 to 38° -1.0% +1.9% 7%

39 to 50° -0.5% +0.5% 8%

Above 50° +0.2% -1.2%

Xander Bogaerts has 8 plate appearances against Chris Sale in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 8 with a strikeout.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	8	8	2	0	0	2	1	0	0.250
Expected From Contact →			2.27	0.01	0.21	2.05			0.283

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2025-03-27	Strikeout
2025-03-27	Single
2025-03-27	Pop Out
2024-07-14	Single			91%	8%
2024-07-14	Groundout			3%	97%
2023-05-20	Pop Out				100%
2023-05-20	Groundout			9%	91%
2023-05-20	Lineout		20%	2%	77%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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