Matchup Machine

J.T. Realmuto

Worst 29% of matchups for Spencer Strider

Spencer Strider

Worst 7% of matchups for J.T. Realmuto

Moderate advantage for Strider

- 4

Model Prediction
Prediction	3.5%	4.4%	10.5%	8.1%	31.1%
MLB (+/-)	+0.7	+0.1	-3.4	-1.6	+5.8
Realmuto	-0.3	-0.1	-2.0	-0.8	+6.4
Strider	+0.9	+0.2	-1.3	-1.3	-1.4

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

3.5%

4.4%

10.5%

8.1%

31.1%

MLB (+/-)

+0.7

+0.1

-3.4

-1.6

+5.8

Realmuto

-0.3

-0.1

-2.0

-0.8

+6.4

Strider

+0.9

+0.2

-1.3

-1.4

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	17	15	3	0	1	2	8	2	.200
Expected From Contact →			1.87	0.00	0.12	1.74			.124

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-19	Lineout		8%	3%	89%
2023-09-19	Double		3%	49%	49%
2023-09-19	Flyout				100%
2023-06-20	Strikeout
2023-06-20	Strikeout
2023-06-20	Single			26%	74%
2023-05-28	Strikeout
2023-05-28	Strikeout
2022-10-14	Strikeout
2022-10-14	Single		1%	80%	19%
2022-08-02	Strikeout
2022-08-02	Strikeout
2022-08-02	Groundout			16%	83%
2022-07-26	Strikeout
2022-07-26	Walk
2022-07-26	Pop Out				100%
2022-05-25	Walk

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
	55%	29	RHB vs RHP	125	47%	⭐⭐

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

55%

RHB vs RHP

125

47%

⭐⭐

Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
57%	43	Fastball	125	59%	⭐⭐
31%	9	Breaking	80	34%	⭐⭐
12%	63	Offspeed	68	7%
		------------------
57%	4	Four-Seam FB	122	59%	⭐⭐
48%	6	Slider	91	34%	⭐⭐
59%	81	Changeup	67	7%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

57%

Fastball

125

59%

⭐⭐

31%

Breaking

34%

⭐⭐

12%

Offspeed

------------------

57%

Four-Seam FB

122

59%

⭐⭐

48%

Slider

34%

⭐⭐

59%

Changeup

Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
69%	18	Away / Glove Side	97	15%	⭐⭐
72%	22	Top of zone	125	13%	⭐⭐
72%	59	Bottom of zone	89	12%
79%	67	In / Arm Side	125	7%	⭐
79%	30	Middle	94	6%	⭐⭐

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

69%

Away / Glove Side

15%

⭐⭐

72%

Top of zone

125

13%

⭐⭐

72%

Bottom of zone

12%

79%

In / Arm Side

125

⭐

79%

Middle

⭐⭐

Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
43%	24	Below the zone	77	36%	⭐
33%	36	Away / Glove Side	104	35%	⭐⭐
40%	25	Above the zone	125	23%	⭐⭐
52%	2	In / Arm Side	43	13%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

43%

Below the zone

36%

⭐

33%

Away / Glove Side

104

35%

⭐⭐

40%

Above the zone

125

23%

⭐⭐

52%

In / Arm Side

13%

Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
60%	27	Batter Behind	112	35%	⭐⭐
69%	6	2 Strikes	102	34%	⭐⭐
35%	25	First Pitch	125	24%	⭐⭐
59%	69	Batter Ahead	117	23%	⭐
69%	3	3 Balls	100	7%	⭐⭐
83%	17	Full Count	93	4%	⭐⭐

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

60%

Batter Behind

112

35%

⭐⭐

69%

2 Strikes

102

34%

⭐⭐

35%

First Pitch

125

24%

⭐⭐

59%

Batter Ahead

117

23%

⭐

69%

3 Balls

100

⭐⭐

83%

Full Count

⭐⭐