Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Aaron Judge

matchup for Ryan Weathers

431st out of 436 (Worst 1%)

Ryan Weathers

matchup for Aaron Judge

442nd out of 567 (Worst 22%)

Extreme advantage for Judge

Aaron Judge has a 38.1% chance of reaching base vs Ryan Weathers, which is 1.8% lower than Judge's typical expectations, and 8.2% higher than batters facing Weathers.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	38.1%	19.6%	3.8%	5.6%	10.2%	18.5%	27.9%
Judge	-1.8	-2.3	-1.8	+0.3	-0.8	+0.5	+0.5
Weathers	+8.2	-2.0	+1.8	0.0	-3.7	+10.2	+3.2

Aaron Judge is about the same vs left-handed pitching as he is against right. Ryan Weathers is left handed with an extreme release toward the first base side. Judge has an A+ grade vs this particular release point.

Ryan Weathers throws a 4-seam fastball 44% of the time. Aaron Judge has an A+ grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

44%

Slider (L)

25%

Changeup (L)

18%

Sinker (L)

13%

12% of Ryan Weathers's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 1% higher than the MLB average. Aaron Judge has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Likely Ball 21%

+1%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Non-Competitive 13%

+0%

Fringe Miss 12%

Edge Painter 17%

Weak Challenge 8%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Chaser 5%

-1%

53% of Ryan Weathers's pitches are classified as Large Break Toward Third Base, which is 32% higher than the MLB average. Aaron Judge has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Large Break 53%

+32%

Fast Velo 28%

+19%

Low Ride 37%

+14%

15.8% of Aaron Judge's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.0% higher than the league average. Ryan Weathers strikes out 14.3% of the batters he faces, which is 2.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +2.0% -2.1% 0%

Walk +9.3% -0.6% 44%

In Play -11.3% +2.7% 39%

On Base +7.5% +0.9% 31%

Hit -1.8% +1.5% 14%

Single -4.6% +0.9% 13%

2B / 3B -4.3% +1.2% 3%

Home Run +7.1% -0.5%

26.2% of Aaron Judge's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 8.2% lower than the league average. Ryan Weathers induces Standard Grounders at a 40.1% rate, which is 5.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.5% +0.3% 34%

Standard Grounder -8.2% +5.7% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.5% -0.6% 14%

Low Screamer -4.0% -1.1% 9%

Rising Liner +1.9% -1.3% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.4% +1.4% 3%

Likely Homer +5.4% -0.7% 1%

No Doubter +4.3% +0.5% 20%

Routine Flyout -0.2% -5.5% 3%

Pop up -1.5% +1.2%

49.4% of Aaron Judge's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 25.1% higher than the league average. 25.4% of batted balls allowed by Ryan Weathers are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -8.2% +0.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph -4.6% +1.0% 18%

87 to 93 mph -6.8% -0.7% 19%

94 to 99 mph -5.6% -2.0% 24%

Above 100 mph +25.1% +1.1%

16.7% of Aaron Judge's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 5.2% higher than the league average. 7.7% of batted balls allowed by Ryan Weathers are hit at this angle, which is 3.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -6.7% +3.9% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.9% +2.6% 8%

1 to 6° +1.2% +1.2% 18%

7 to 18° +2.0% -3.3% 15%

19 to 28° +0.5% +0.1% 11%

29 to 38° +5.2% -3.8% 7%

39 to 50° +1.9% +0.2% 8%

Above 50° -3.1% -0.9%

Aaron Judge has 2 plate appearances against Ryan Weathers in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 1 with a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.54	0.00	0.48	0.07			0.543

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-04-10	Groundout		48%	7%	46%
2024-04-10	Walk

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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