Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Aaron Judge

matchup for Freddy Peralta

433rd out of 436 (Worst 1%)

Freddy Peralta

matchup for Aaron Judge

255th out of 567 (Best 46%)

Extreme advantage for Judge

Aaron Judge has a 38.3% chance of reaching base vs Freddy Peralta, which is 0.1% higher than Judge's typical expectations, and 7.7% higher than batters facing Peralta.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	38.3%	18.9%	6.9%	4.4%	7.7%	19.4%	31.7%
Judge	+0.1	-2.7	+1.5	-0.7	-3.6	+2.8	+2.4
Peralta	+7.7	-0.2	+3.9	-0.5	-3.6	+7.9	+4.1

Aaron Judge is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Freddy Peralta is right handed with an extreme release toward the third base side. Judge has an A+ grade vs this particular release point.

Freddy Peralta throws a 4-seam fastball 53% of the time. Aaron Judge has an A+ grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

53%

Slider (R)

22%

Changeup (R)

14%

Curve (R)

11%

7% of Freddy Peralta's pitches are classified as Strong Challenges, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Aaron Judge has a B grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Strong Challenge 7%

+2%

Likely Ball 21%

+1%

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Meatball 7%

+1%

Non-Competitive 13%

+0%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Chaser 6%

Edge Painter 16%

-1%

Weak Challenge 4%

-4%

37% of Freddy Peralta's pitches are classified as Medium Break Toward Third Base, which is 18% higher than the MLB average. Aaron Judge has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Break 37%

+18%

Medium Ride 28%

+14%

16.4% of Aaron Judge's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.9% higher than the league average. Freddy Peralta strikes out 21.6% of the batters he faces, which is 8.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +2.9% +8.7% 1%

Walk +9.1% +1.1% 44%

In Play -12.0% -9.8% 39%

On Base +6.4% -6.5% 31%

Hit -2.6% -7.7% 14%

Single -4.4% -3.7% 13%

2B / 3B -3.8% -3.7% 3%

Home Run +5.6% -0.3%

26.1% of Aaron Judge's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 8.3% lower than the league average. Freddy Peralta induces Standard Grounders at a 28.4% rate, which is 6.0% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.5% -0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder -8.3% -6.0% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.5% -2.2% 14%

Low Screamer -4.0% -0.5% 9%

Rising Liner +2.0% -2.8% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.4% -1.1% 3%

Likely Homer +5.4% +0.3% 1%

No Doubter +4.3% +0.3% 20%

Routine Flyout -0.2% +7.2% 3%

Pop up -1.6% +5.0%

49.4% of Aaron Judge's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 25.1% higher than the league average. 22.1% of batted balls allowed by Freddy Peralta are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.2% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -8.3% +1.0% 21%

75 to 86 mph -4.5% +1.0% 18%

87 to 93 mph -6.7% +1.1% 19%

94 to 99 mph -5.6% -0.9% 24%

Above 100 mph +25.1% -2.2%

16.6% of Aaron Judge's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 5.2% higher than the league average. 14.3% of batted balls allowed by Freddy Peralta are hit at this angle, which is 2.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -6.8% -4.0% 12%

-10 to 0° -1.0% -2.3% 8%

1 to 6° +1.2% -1.2% 18%

7 to 18° +2.1% -4.4% 15%

19 to 28° +0.7% +2.2% 11%

29 to 38° +5.2% +2.8% 7%

39 to 50° +1.8% +0.9% 8%

Above 50° -3.2% +5.9%

Aaron Judge has 3 plate appearances against Freddy Peralta in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 3 with 2 strikeouts.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00			0.000

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2025-03-27	Lineout
2025-03-27	Strikeout
2025-03-27	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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