Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Aaron Judge

matchup for Seth Lugo

435th out of 436 (Worst 0%)

Seth Lugo

matchup for Aaron Judge

149th out of 567 (Best 27%)

Extreme advantage for Judge

Aaron Judge has a 41.8% chance of reaching base vs Seth Lugo, which is 1.9% higher than Judge's typical expectations, and 9.3% higher than batters facing Lugo.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	41.8%	25.1%	6.3%	6.4%	12.4%	16.7%	26.2%
Judge	+1.9	+3.3	+0.7	+1.1	+1.4	-1.4	-1.2
Lugo	+9.3	+1.2	+3.2	+1.5	-3.5	+8.2	+1.4

Aaron Judge is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Seth Lugo is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Judge has an A grade vs this particular release point.

Seth Lugo throws a 4-seam fastball 29% of the time. Aaron Judge has an A+ grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

29%

Curve (R)

28%

Sinker (R)

17%

Slider (R)

13%

Changeup (R)

10% of Seth Lugo's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Aaron Judge has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 10%

+2%

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Chaser 6%

Non-Competitive 12%

-1%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Likely Ball 18%

-1%

25% of Seth Lugo's pitches are classified as Extreme Drop, which is 20% higher than the MLB average. Aaron Judge has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Drop 25%

+20%

Large Break 18%

+13%

Extreme Slow Velo 16%

+11%

Breaking (R) 41%

+10%

15.8% of Aaron Judge's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.0% higher than the league average. Seth Lugo strikes out 16.5% of the batters he faces, which is 0.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +2.0% +0.8% 0%

Walk +9.3% -2.3% 44%

In Play -11.3% +1.4% 39%

On Base +7.5% -0.4% 31%

Hit -1.8% +1.9% 14%

Single -4.6% +0.7% 13%

2B / 3B -4.3% +1.1% 3%

Home Run +7.1% +0.1%

26.2% of Aaron Judge's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 8.2% lower than the league average. Seth Lugo induces Standard Grounders at a 36.3% rate, which is 1.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.5% +1.4% 34%

Standard Grounder -8.2% +1.9% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.5% -1.6% 14%

Low Screamer -4.0% +0.5% 9%

Rising Liner +1.9% -1.0% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.4% -0.5% 3%

Likely Homer +5.4% +2.1% 1%

No Doubter +4.3% -0.5% 20%

Routine Flyout -0.2% -0.1% 3%

Pop up -1.5% -2.2%

49.4% of Aaron Judge's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 25.1% higher than the league average. 22.7% of batted balls allowed by Seth Lugo are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -8.2% +1.3% 21%

75 to 86 mph -4.6% +0.9% 18%

87 to 93 mph -6.8% -1.4% 19%

94 to 99 mph -5.6% +0.8% 24%

Above 100 mph +25.1% -1.6%

16.7% of Aaron Judge's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 5.2% higher than the league average. 14.0% of batted balls allowed by Seth Lugo are hit at this angle, which is 2.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -6.7% +2.2% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.9% -0.2% 8%

1 to 6° +1.2% +1.3% 18%

7 to 18° +2.0% -2.0% 15%

19 to 28° +0.5% -1.4% 11%

29 to 38° +5.2% +2.6% 7%

39 to 50° +1.9% +0.4% 8%

Above 50° -3.1% -2.9%

Aaron Judge has 8 plate appearances against Seth Lugo in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 8 with 3 strikeouts.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	8	8	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			1.16	0.11	0.23	0.83			0.146

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-10-09	Lineout		7%	66%	27%
2024-10-09	Flyout	10%	15%		74%
2024-10-09	Flyout				99%
2024-09-10	Strikeout
2024-09-10	Groundout			6%	94%
2024-09-10	Strikeout
2022-08-23	Strikeout
2022-07-27	Forceout			10%	89%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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