Matchup Machine

Aaron Judge

Worst 3% of matchups for Yusei Kikuchi

Yusei Kikuchi

Worst 40% of matchups for Aaron Judge

Strong advantage for Judge

Model Prediction
Prediction	4.9%	4.3%	10.2%	15.0%	28.8%
MLB (+/-)	+2.1	+0.1	-3.8	+5.3	+3.6
Judge	-0.1	+0.4	+0.5	-2.0	-0.1
Kikuchi	+2.0	+0.1	-4.2	+6.4	+2.2

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

4.9%

4.3%

10.2%

15.0%

28.8%

MLB (+/-)

+2.1

+0.1

-3.8

+5.3

+3.6

Judge

-0.1

+0.4

+0.5

-2.0

-0.1

Kikuchi

+2.0

+0.1

-4.2

+6.4

+2.2

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	21	17	3	1	0	2	8	4	.176
Expected From Contact →			4.52	1.68	2.02	0.82			.266

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-19	Single	7%	63%	24%	6%
2023-09-19	Strikeout
2023-04-21	Groundout			2%	98%
2023-04-21	Strikeout
2023-04-21	Strikeout
2022-06-19	Walk
2022-06-19	Strikeout
2022-05-10	Single		65%	13%	22%
2022-05-10	Strikeout
2022-05-10	Flyout	17%	2%		80%
2022-05-04	Strikeout
2022-05-04	Walk
2022-05-04	Strikeout
2022-04-12	Flyout	45%	8%		46%
2022-04-12	Groundout			29%	71%
2021-08-08	Strikeout
2021-08-08	Walk
2021-08-08	Groundout		62%	8%	30%
2021-07-07	Walk
2021-07-07	Home Run	99%
2021-07-07	Groundout			5%	95%

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
	42%	115	RHB vs LHP	83	79%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

42%

115

RHB vs LHP

79%

	Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
	45%	109	Fastball	90	45%
	33%	89	Breaking	68	45%
⭐	12%	92	Offspeed	49	10%
			------------------
⭐	45%	112	Four-Seam FB	68	45%
⭐	41%	87	Slider	38	27%
	55%	42	Curveball	81	17%
	39%	74	Changeup	45	10%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

45%

109

Fastball

45%

33%

Breaking

45%

⭐

12%

Offspeed

10%

------------------

⭐

45%

112

Four-Seam FB

45%

⭐

41%

Slider

27%

55%

Curveball

17%

39%

Changeup

10%

	Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
	66%	95	Bottom of zone	70	14%
	52%	58	Away / Arm Side	100	11%	⭐
	78%	98	Top of zone	84	10%
	75%	93	In / Glove Side	70	10%
⭐⭐	82%	113	Middle	36	6%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

66%

Bottom of zone

14%

52%

Away / Arm Side

100

11%

⭐

78%

Top of zone

10%

75%

In / Glove Side

10%

⭐⭐

82%

113

Middle

Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
29%	41	Below the zone	85	35%	⭐
21%	21	Away / Arm Side	45	26%
29%	29	In / Glove Side	113	24%	⭐⭐
26%	33	Above the zone	71	23%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

29%

Below the zone

35%

⭐

21%

Away / Arm Side

26%

29%

In / Glove Side

113

24%

⭐⭐

26%

Above the zone

23%

	Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
	57%	87	2 Strikes	62	30%
	46%	46	Batter Behind	79	30%
	44%	106	Batter Ahead	86	26%
	34%	111	First Pitch	87	25%
	54%	92	3 Balls	79	8%
⭐	65%	106	Full Count	57	5%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

57%

2 Strikes

30%

46%

Batter Behind

30%

44%

106

Batter Ahead

26%

34%

111

First Pitch

25%

54%

3 Balls

⭐

65%

106

Full Count