Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Aaron Judge

matchup for Patrick Corbin

425th out of 436 (Worst 3%)

Patrick Corbin

matchup for Aaron Judge

374th out of 567 (Worst 34%)

Extreme advantage for Judge

Aaron Judge has a 39.3% chance of reaching base vs Patrick Corbin, which is 0.6% lower than Judge's typical expectations, and 6.3% higher than batters facing Corbin.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	39.3%	22.4%	4.3%	5.3%	12.9%	16.9%	25.4%
Judge	-0.6	+0.6	-1.3	+0.0	+1.9	-1.2	-2.1
Corbin	+6.3	-2.9	+1.6	-0.5	-4.0	+9.2	+3.7

Aaron Judge is about the same vs left-handed pitching as he is against right. Patrick Corbin is left handed with a horizontal release toward the first base side. Judge has an A+ grade vs this particular release point.

Patrick Corbin throws a Sinker 38% of the time. Aaron Judge has an A+ grade against left-handed Sinkers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Sinker (L)

38%

Slider (L)

34%

4-Seam (L)

16%

Changeup (L)

Cutter (L)

23% of Patrick Corbin's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Aaron Judge has a B grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 23%

+3%

Weak Challenge 10%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Chaser 6%

+0%

Edge Painter 17%

+0%

Mid Challenge 11%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

Non-Competitive 9%

-3%

45% of Patrick Corbin's pitches are classified as Low Ride, which is 21% higher than the MLB average. Aaron Judge has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Low Ride 45%

+21%

Minimal Break 23%

+13%

Medium Fast Velo 27%

+11%

15.8% of Aaron Judge's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.0% higher than the league average. Patrick Corbin strikes out 17.4% of the batters he faces, which is 2.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +2.0% +2.1% 0%

Walk +9.3% -2.5% 44%

In Play -11.3% +0.4% 39%

On Base +7.5% -0.7% 31%

Hit -1.8% +1.8% 14%

Single -4.6% +1.2% 13%

2B / 3B -4.3% +1.2% 3%

Home Run +7.1% -0.7%

26.2% of Aaron Judge's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 8.2% lower than the league average. Patrick Corbin induces Standard Grounders at a 37.2% rate, which is 2.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.5% -0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder -8.2% +2.8% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.5% +2.4% 14%

Low Screamer -4.0% -2.1% 9%

Rising Liner +1.9% +1.9% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.4% -0.5% 3%

Likely Homer +5.4% -0.1% 1%

No Doubter +4.3% -0.1% 20%

Routine Flyout -0.2% -3.5% 3%

Pop up -1.5% -0.7%

49.4% of Aaron Judge's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 25.1% higher than the league average. 29.8% of batted balls allowed by Patrick Corbin are hit at above 100 mph, which is 5.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -8.2% -2.4% 21%

75 to 86 mph -4.6% +1.1% 18%

87 to 93 mph -6.8% -2.7% 19%

94 to 99 mph -5.6% -1.4% 24%

Above 100 mph +25.1% +5.5%

16.7% of Aaron Judge's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 5.2% higher than the league average. 10.3% of batted balls allowed by Patrick Corbin are hit at this angle, which is 1.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -6.7% +1.7% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.9% +0.9% 8%

1 to 6° +1.2% +3.4% 18%

7 to 18° +2.0% +0.8% 15%

19 to 28° +0.5% -2.1% 11%

29 to 38° +5.2% -1.1% 7%

39 to 50° +1.9% -2.2% 8%

Above 50° -3.1% -1.4%

Aaron Judge has 6 plate appearances against Patrick Corbin in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 4 with a home run, a double and 2 walks

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	6	4	2	1	1	0	1	2	0.500
Expected From Contact →			1.98	0.93	1.00	0.04			0.494

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-08-27	Double		95%	4%
2024-08-27	Walk
2024-08-27	Strikeout
2023-08-24	Walk
2023-08-24	Home Run	93%	5%		2%
2023-08-24	Pop Out				100%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine Log InSubscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe