matchup for Jared Jones
3
Nick Castellanos has a 30.4% chance of reaching base vs Jared Jones, which is 2.1% lower than Castellanos's typical expectations, and 0.8% lower than batters facing Jones.
| Reach | Hit | HR | 2B / 3B | 1B | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction | 30.4% | 24.2% | 3.6% | 6.1% | 14.4% | 6.2% | 26.6% |
| Castellanos | -2.1 | -1.6 | +0.5 | -0.4 | -1.7 | -0.5 | +4.2 |
| Jones | -0.8 | +3.4 | +0.7 | +1.1 | +1.5 | -4.2 | -2.0 |
Nick Castellanos is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Jared Jones is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Castellanos has an A grade vs this particular release point.
Jared Jones throws a 4-seam fastball 49% of the time. Nick Castellanos has an A grade against right-handed 4-seamers
Pitch Type
% of Arsenal
4-Seam (R)
49%
Slider (R)
35%
Curve (R)
9%
Changeup (R)
7%
17% of Jared Jones's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 6% higher than the MLB average. Nick Castellanos has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.
Pitch Label
% vs MLB
Mid Challenge
17%
+6%
Strong Challenge
8%
+3%
Edge Painter
18%
+1%
Chaser
6%
0%
Likely Ball
18%
-1%
Fringe Miss
11%
-1%
Non-Competitive
11%
-2%
Weak Challenge
6%
-2%
Meatball
3%
-4%
36% of Jared Jones's pitches are classified as Medium Break Toward Third Base, which is 16% higher than the MLB average. Nick Castellanos has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.
Physical Trait
% vs MLB
Medium Break
36%
+16%
Extreme Fast Velo
18%
+15%
Breaking (R)
44%
+13%
High Ride
22%
+11%
11.6% of Nick Castellanos's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 5.0% lower than the league average. Jared Jones strikes out 15.5% of the batters he faces, which is 0.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.
16%
Strikeout
-5.0%
+0.3%
5%
Walk
-1.8%
+0.7%
37%
In Play
+6.8%
-1.0%
39%
On Base
+8.1%
0.0%
31%
Hit
+9.9%
-0.7%
14%
Single
+4.0%
-1.1%
13%
2B / 3B
+4.3%
-0.5%
3%
Home Run
+1.5%
+0.9%
31.2% of Nick Castellanos's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 3.2% lower than the league average. Jared Jones induces Standard Grounders at a 30.5% rate, which is 4.0% lower than the typical MLB rate.
0%
Squib/Bunt
0.0%
-0.2%
34%
Standard Grounder
-3.2%
-4.0%
7%
Hard Grounder
-0.5%
+0.7%
14%
Low Screamer
-0.6%
-2.5%
9%
Rising Liner
+0.7%
+0.9%
4%
Maybe Homer
+1.1%
+1.4%
3%
Likely Homer
-0.2%
-0.2%
1%
No Doubter
+0.5%
+0.2%
20%
Routine Flyout
+3.4%
+1.1%
3%
Pop up
-1.3%
+2.5%
23.8% of Nick Castellanos's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 0.5% lower than the league average. 24.8% of batted balls allowed by Jared Jones are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.
16%
Below 75 mph
+0.5%
+1.3%
21%
75 to 86 mph
+1.1%
-4.4%
18%
87 to 93 mph
-1.2%
-2.9%
19%
94 to 99 mph
+0.1%
+5.5%
24%
Above 100 mph
-0.5%
+0.5%
13.9% of Nick Castellanos's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.5% higher than the league average. 8.7% of batted balls allowed by Jared Jones are hit at this angle, which is 2.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.
17%
Below -10°
-4.3%
+1.9%
12%
-10 to 0°
-0.9%
-0.1%
8%
1 to 6°
-1.2%
-2.8%
18%
7 to 18°
+1.9%
-1.5%
15%
19 to 28°
+3.5%
+3.6%
11%
29 to 38°
+2.5%
-2.8%
7%
39 to 50°
+1.0%
-0.7%
8%
Above 50°
-2.6%
+2.3%
Nick Castellanos has 2 plate appearances against Jared Jones in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 2.
| PA | AB | H | HR | 2/3B | 1B | K | BB | Avg | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| Expected From Contact → | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 0.02 | 0.158 | ||||
| Expected From Contact | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Outcome | HR | 2/3B | 1B | Out |
| 2024-04-11 | Flyout | 100% | |||
| 2024-04-11 | Flyout | 29% | 2% | 69% | |
Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.
