Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Nick Castellanos

matchup for Tanner Bibee

309th out of 436 (Worst 29%)

Tanner Bibee

matchup for N. Castellanos

339th out of 567 (Worst 40%)

Moderate advantage for Castellanos

Nick Castellanos has a 32.0% chance of reaching base vs Tanner Bibee, which is 0.2% higher than Castellanos's typical expectations, and 0.9% higher than batters facing Bibee.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	32.0%	25.1%	2.9%	5.7%	16.5%	6.9%	24.5%
Castellanos	+0.2	+0.2	-0.1	-0.6	+0.9	0.0	+1.9
Bibee	+0.9	+3.1	+0.1	+0.6	+2.4	-2.2	-0.6

Nick Castellanos is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Tanner Bibee is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Castellanos has an A grade vs this particular release point.

Tanner Bibee throws a 4-seam fastball 45% of the time. Nick Castellanos has an A grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

45%

Slider (R)

27%

Changeup (R)

17%

Curve (R)

13% of Tanner Bibee's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Nick Castellanos has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 13%

+2%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Meatball 7%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Strong Challenge 5%

Non-Competitive 12%

Weak Challenge 8%

-1%

Chaser 5%

-1%

Likely Ball 18%

-1%

28% of Tanner Bibee's pitches are classified as Fast Velocity, which is 13% higher than the MLB average. Nick Castellanos has an A- grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Fast Velo 28%

+13%

Medium Break 22%

+13%

Medium Ride 24%

+11%

11.7% of Nick Castellanos's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 4.8% lower than the league average. Tanner Bibee strikes out 17.7% of the batters he faces, which is 2.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Strikeout -4.8% +2.8% 5%

Walk -1.7% -1.3% 37%

In Play +6.5% -1.5% 39%

On Base +8.2% -1.1% 31%

Hit +9.9% +0.2% 14%

Single +4.1% -0.3% 13%

2B / 3B +4.3% +0.2% 3%

Home Run +1.5% +0.2%

31.2% of Nick Castellanos's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 3.2% lower than the league average. Tanner Bibee induces Standard Grounders at a 26.6% rate, which is 7.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.0% -0.4% 34%

Standard Grounder -3.2% -7.8% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.5% +3.1% 14%

Low Screamer -0.6% -0.4% 9%

Rising Liner +0.7% +2.3% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.1% -1.2% 3%

Likely Homer -0.2% -2.0% 1%

No Doubter +0.5% +0.7% 20%

Routine Flyout +3.4% +1.8% 3%

Pop up -1.3% +3.9%

23.8% of Nick Castellanos's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 0.5% lower than the league average. 24.6% of batted balls allowed by Tanner Bibee are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +0.4% -1.7% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.2% +2.9% 18%

87 to 93 mph -1.1% -2.2% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.1% +0.7% 24%

Above 100 mph -0.5% +0.3%

13.9% of Nick Castellanos's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.5% higher than the league average. 10.8% of batted balls allowed by Tanner Bibee are hit at this angle, which is 0.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -4.3% -4.6% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.9% +0.5% 8%

1 to 6° -1.2% -2.7% 18%

7 to 18° +1.9% +5.2% 15%

19 to 28° +3.5% -2.9% 11%

29 to 38° +2.5% -0.6% 7%

39 to 50° +1.1% +0.1% 8%

Above 50° -2.6% +5.1%

Nick Castellanos has 3 plate appearances against Tanner Bibee in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 3 with a strikeout.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.04	0.00	0.03	0.01			0.013

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-07-22	Strikeout
2023-07-22	Flyout				99%
2023-07-22	Flyout		3%		97%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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