Matchup Machine

Nick Castellanos

Worst 21% of matchups for Spencer Strider

Spencer Strider

Worst 16% of matchups for N. Castellanos

Leans in favor of Strider

- 2

Model Prediction
Prediction	3.9%	4.3%	11.6%	9.1%	33.5%
MLB (+/-)	+1.1	+0.0	-2.4	-0.7	+8.3
Castellanos	-0.3	+0.1	-1.8	+0.3	+5.6
Strider	+1.3	-0.1	-0.5	-0.3	+2.0

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

3.9%

4.3%

11.6%

9.1%

33.5%

MLB (+/-)

+1.1

+0.0

-2.4

-0.7

+8.3

Castellanos

-0.3

+0.1

-1.8

+0.3

+5.6

Strider

+1.3

-0.1

-0.5

-0.3

+2.0

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	18	18	3	0	0	3	8	0	.167
Expected From Contact →			2.83	0.09	1.22	1.52			.157

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-19	Strikeout
2023-09-19	Strikeout
2023-09-19	Strikeout
2023-09-13	Strikeout
2023-09-13	Pop Out				100%
2023-09-13	Single		2%	37%	61%
2023-06-20	Strikeout
2023-06-20	Strikeout
2023-06-20	Single		1%	81%	18%
2023-05-28	Flyout				99%
2023-05-28	Strikeout
2022-10-14	Flyout				99%
2022-08-02	Single		74%	17%	9%
2022-08-02	Strikeout
2022-08-02	Groundout			8%	92%
2022-07-26	Flyout			2%	98%
2022-07-26	Groundout		23%	6%	71%
2022-05-25	Flyout	9%	21%	1%	69%

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
	59%	70	RHB vs RHP	125	46%	⭐

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

59%

RHB vs RHP

125

46%

⭐

Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
54%	75	Fastball	125	59%	⭐
46%	80	Breaking	78	34%
19%	24	Offspeed	70	7%	⭐
		------------------
53%	65	Four-Seam FB	125	59%	⭐
62%	101	Slider	94	34%
64%	21	Changeup	66	7%	⭐

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

54%

Fastball

125

59%

⭐

46%

Breaking

34%

19%

Offspeed

⭐

------------------

53%

Four-Seam FB

125

59%

⭐

62%

101

Slider

34%

64%

Changeup

⭐

Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
65%	25	Away / Glove Side	100	15%	⭐⭐
77%	61	Top of zone	125	12%	⭐⭐
77%	107	Bottom of zone	93	12%
81%	105	In / Arm Side	125	8%
87%	30	Middle	93	6%	⭐⭐

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

65%

Away / Glove Side

100

15%

⭐⭐

77%

Top of zone

125

12%

⭐⭐

77%

107

Bottom of zone

12%

81%

105

In / Arm Side

125

87%

Middle

⭐⭐

Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
52%	59	Below the zone	78	36%
40%	13	Away / Glove Side	104	35%	⭐⭐
41%	6	Above the zone	125	23%	⭐⭐
58%	53	In / Arm Side	39	13%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

52%

Below the zone

36%

40%

Away / Glove Side

104

35%

⭐⭐

41%

Above the zone

125

23%

⭐⭐

58%

In / Arm Side

13%

Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
56%	20	Batter Behind	113	35%	⭐⭐
61%	64	2 Strikes	98	34%
51%	79	First Pitch	125	24%	⭐
68%	55	Batter Ahead	119	23%	⭐⭐
68%	61	3 Balls	95	7%
75%	55	Full Count	89	4%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

56%

Batter Behind

113

35%

⭐⭐

61%

2 Strikes

34%

51%

First Pitch

125

24%

⭐

68%

Batter Ahead

119

23%

⭐⭐

68%

3 Balls

75%

Full Count