Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Nick Castellanos

matchup for Jose Berrios

268th out of 436 (Worst 39%)

Jose Berrios

matchup for N. Castellanos

291st out of 567 (Worst 49%)

Moderate advantage for Castellanos

Nick Castellanos has a 31.8% chance of reaching base vs Jose Berrios, which is 0.0% higher than Castellanos's typical expectations, and 0.6% lower than batters facing Berrios.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	31.8%	26.2%	2.9%	5.7%	17.6%	5.6%	19.9%
Castellanos	+0.0	+1.3	-0.1	-0.6	+2.0	-1.3	-2.8
Berrios	-0.6	+1.5	0.0	+0.5	+1.1	-2.1	-2.3

Nick Castellanos is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Jose Berrios is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Castellanos has an A grade vs this particular release point.

Jose Berrios throws a Sinker 30% of the time. Nick Castellanos has an A+ grade against right-handed Sinkers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Sinker (R)

30%

Curve (R)

30%

4-Seam (R)

23%

Changeup (R)

16%

18% of Jose Berrios's pitches are classified as Edge Painters, which is 1% higher than the MLB average. Nick Castellanos has a B grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Weak Challenge 9%

+1%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Likely Ball 20%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Strong Challenge 5%

Mid Challenge 11%

Meatball 4%

-2%

Non-Competitive 10%

-3%

31% of Jose Berrios's pitches are classified as Extreme Break Toward Third Base, which is 17% higher than the MLB average. Nick Castellanos has a B grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Break 31%

+17%

Low Ride 39%

+15%

Very Slow Velo 26%

+12%

11.7% of Nick Castellanos's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 4.8% lower than the league average. Jose Berrios strikes out 15.4% of the batters he faces, which is 0.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Strikeout -4.8% +0.7% 5%

Walk -1.7% -0.8% 37%

In Play +6.5% +0.1% 39%

On Base +8.2% -0.3% 31%

Hit +9.9% +0.6% 14%

Single +4.1% +0.1% 13%

2B / 3B +4.3% +0.4% 3%

Home Run +1.5% +0.2%

31.2% of Nick Castellanos's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 3.2% lower than the league average. Jose Berrios induces Standard Grounders at a 34.7% rate, which is 0.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.0% -0.4% 34%

Standard Grounder -3.2% +0.2% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.5% -0.7% 14%

Low Screamer -0.6% -0.4% 9%

Rising Liner +0.7% +1.6% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.1% +0.5% 3%

Likely Homer -0.2% +0.5% 1%

No Doubter +0.5% +0.2% 20%

Routine Flyout +3.4% -1.5% 3%

Pop up -1.3% -0.1%

23.8% of Nick Castellanos's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 0.5% lower than the league average. 26.4% of batted balls allowed by Jose Berrios are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +0.4% +0.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.2% -1.1% 18%

87 to 93 mph -1.1% -0.6% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.1% -1.0% 24%

Above 100 mph -0.5% +2.1%

13.9% of Nick Castellanos's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.5% higher than the league average. 11.9% of batted balls allowed by Jose Berrios are hit at this angle, which is 0.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -4.3% -1.0% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.9% +0.5% 8%

1 to 6° -1.2% -0.4% 18%

7 to 18° +1.9% +1.4% 15%

19 to 28° +3.5% 0.0% 11%

29 to 38° +2.5% +0.5% 7%

39 to 50° +1.1% -0.1% 8%

Above 50° -2.6% -0.8%

Nick Castellanos has 5 plate appearances against Jose Berrios in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 5 with a double and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	5	5	2	0	1	1	2	0	0.400
Expected From Contact →			1.08	0.00	0.94	0.14			0.216

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-05-07	Flyout				99%
2024-05-07	Double		93%	5%	1%
2022-07-12	Single			9%	91%
2022-07-12	Strikeout
2022-07-12	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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