Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Willson Contreras

matchup for JP Sears

311st out of 436 (Worst 29%)

JP Sears

matchup for W. Contreras

118th out of 567 (Best 22%)

Strong advantage for Contreras

Willson Contreras has a 29.9% chance of reaching base vs JP Sears, which is 1.4% lower than Contreras's typical expectations, and 0.1% higher than batters facing Sears.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	29.9%	21.5%	4.6%	5.9%	11.0%	8.3%	20.7%
Contreras	-1.4	+1.3	+1.7	+1.3	-1.6	-2.7	-7.9
Sears	+0.1	-1.1	+1.1	-0.1	-2.1	+1.2	+2.2

Willson Contreras is better vs left-handed pitching. JP Sears is left handed with an over-the-top delivery. Contreras has a B grade vs this particular release point.

JP Sears throws a 4-seam fastball 43% of the time. Willson Contreras has a D+ grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

43%

Slider (L)

33%

Changeup (L)

17%

Sinker (L)

14% of JP Sears's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Willson Contreras has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 14%

+2%

Meatball 7%

+1%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Chaser 6%

Likely Ball 19%

-1%

Non-Competitive 10%

-2%

Weak Challenge 6%

-2%

40% of JP Sears's pitches are classified as Large Break Toward Third Base, which is 18% higher than the MLB average. Willson Contreras has a B grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Large Break 40%

+18%

Medium Fast Velo 28%

+13%

Small Drop 23%

+10%

16.1% of Willson Contreras's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.6% higher than the league average. JP Sears strikes out 14.1% of the batters he faces, which is 2.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +2.6% -2.6% 3%

Walk +3.3% -1.1% 42%

In Play -5.9% +3.7% 39%

On Base +4.5% -2.6% 31%

Hit +1.2% -1.5% 14%

Single -0.2% -1.6% 13%

2B / 3B +0.2% -1.1% 3%

Home Run +1.1% +1.2%

40.8% of Willson Contreras's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 6.4% higher than the league average. JP Sears induces Standard Grounders at a 25.3% rate, which is 9.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.5% -0.4% 34%

Standard Grounder +6.4% -9.1% 7%

Hard Grounder +0.6% +0.8% 14%

Low Screamer -0.9% -1.1% 9%

Rising Liner -1.4% -0.3% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.1% +3.0% 3%

Likely Homer +0.4% -0.7% 1%

No Doubter +0.5% +2.0% 20%

Routine Flyout -4.9% +2.1% 3%

Pop up -0.1% +3.7%

32.2% of Willson Contreras's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 7.9% higher than the league average. 26.9% of batted balls allowed by JP Sears are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +0.1% +2.1% 21%

75 to 86 mph -0.8% -7.2% 18%

87 to 93 mph -2.3% +2.6% 19%

94 to 99 mph -4.9% -0.1% 24%

Above 100 mph +7.9% +2.6%

8.4% of Willson Contreras's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 3.1% lower than the league average. 15.8% of batted balls allowed by JP Sears are hit at this angle, which is 4.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +3.6% -4.2% 12%

-10 to 0° +1.4% -1.6% 8%

1 to 6° +0.6% -1.3% 18%

7 to 18° -0.5% -3.0% 15%

19 to 28° -0.1% +0.5% 11%

29 to 38° -3.1% +4.3% 7%

39 to 50° -0.5% +0.4% 8%

Above 50° -1.4% +5.0%

Willson Contreras has 5 plate appearances against JP Sears in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 4 with a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0.250
Expected From Contact →			1.14	0.00	0.04	1.11			0.285

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-04-16	Strikeout
2024-04-16	Groundout
2024-04-16	Groundout
2023-08-14	Single			92%	7%
2023-08-14	Walk

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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