Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Willson Contreras

matchup for Jack Flaherty

279th out of 436 (Worst 36%)

Jack Flaherty

matchup for W. Contreras

64th out of 567 (Best 12%)

Strong advantage for Contreras

Willson Contreras has a 34.4% chance of reaching base vs Jack Flaherty, which is 3.1% higher than Contreras's typical expectations, and 0.2% higher than batters facing Flaherty.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	34.4%	21.3%	4.2%	5.5%	11.6%	13.1%	26.0%
Contreras	+3.1	+1.1	+1.2	+0.8	-0.9	+2.0	-2.5
Flaherty	+0.2	-2.0	+0.6	+0.3	-2.9	+2.2	+3.2

Willson Contreras is worse vs right-handed pitching. Jack Flaherty is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Contreras has a C grade vs this particular release point.

Jack Flaherty throws a 4-seam fastball 44% of the time. Willson Contreras has a C grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

44%

Slider (R)

27%

Kn-Curve (R)

18%

21% of Jack Flaherty's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Willson Contreras has a D+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 21%

+2%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Edge Painter 17%

Mid Challenge 11%

Chaser 6%

Weak Challenge 8%

Meatball 6%

Non-Competitive 12%

-1%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

45% of Jack Flaherty's pitches are classified as Breaking Pitches, which is 14% higher than the MLB average. Willson Contreras has a B grade against this type of pitch from right handers.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Breaking (R) 45%

+14%

Medium Break 20%

+11%

16.1% of Willson Contreras's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.6% higher than the league average. Jack Flaherty strikes out 20.5% of the batters he faces, which is 5.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +2.6% +5.8% 3%

Walk +3.3% -1.5% 42%

In Play -5.9% -4.3% 39%

On Base +4.5% -2.0% 31%

Hit +1.2% -0.5% 14%

Single -0.2% +0.0% 13%

2B / 3B +0.2% -0.3% 3%

Home Run +1.1% -0.2%

40.8% of Willson Contreras's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 6.4% higher than the league average. Jack Flaherty induces Standard Grounders at a 36.3% rate, which is 1.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.5% -0.2% 34%

Standard Grounder +6.4% +1.9% 7%

Hard Grounder +0.6% -1.5% 14%

Low Screamer -0.9% +1.6% 9%

Rising Liner -1.4% +0.7% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.1% -0.3% 3%

Likely Homer +0.4% +0.1% 1%

No Doubter +0.5% -0.3% 20%

Routine Flyout -4.9% -1.3% 3%

Pop up -0.1% -0.8%

32.2% of Willson Contreras's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 7.9% higher than the league average. 21.5% of batted balls allowed by Jack Flaherty are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +0.1% +1.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph -0.8% +2.0% 18%

87 to 93 mph -2.3% +0.5% 19%

94 to 99 mph -4.9% -1.3% 24%

Above 100 mph +7.9% -2.8%

8.4% of Willson Contreras's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 3.1% lower than the league average. 12.2% of batted balls allowed by Jack Flaherty are hit at this angle, which is 0.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +3.6% +0.6% 12%

-10 to 0° +1.4% -1.0% 8%

1 to 6° +0.6% +0.2% 18%

7 to 18° -0.5% +1.4% 15%

19 to 28° -0.1% +0.2% 11%

29 to 38° -3.1% +0.7% 7%

39 to 50° -0.5% -0.2% 8%

Above 50° -1.4% -1.9%

Willson Contreras has 4 plate appearances against Jack Flaherty in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 4 with 4 strikeouts.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	4	4	0	0	0	0	4	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00			0.000

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-04-30	Strikeout
2024-04-30	Strikeout
2024-04-30	Strikeout
2022-06-26	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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