Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Willson Contreras

matchup for Pablo Lopez

91st out of 436 (Best 22%)

Pablo Lopez

matchup for W. Contreras

447th out of 567 (Worst 21%)

Moderate advantage for Lopez

Willson Contreras has a 29.9% chance of reaching base vs Pablo Lopez, which is 1.8% lower than Contreras's typical expectations, and 1.3% lower than batters facing Lopez.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	29.9%	20.7%	2.6%	4.5%	13.7%	9.2%	32.7%
Contreras	-1.8	+0.0	-0.5	-0.2	+0.8	-1.8	+4.2
Lopez	-1.3	-3.1	-0.3	-0.5	-2.3	+1.8	+5.7

Willson Contreras is worse vs right-handed pitching. Pablo Lopez is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Contreras has a B grade vs this particular release point.

Pablo Lopez throws a 4-seam fastball 37% of the time. Willson Contreras has a C grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

37%

Changeup (R)

25%

Slider (R)

13%

Curve (R)

10%

Sinker (R)

8% of Pablo Lopez's pitches are classified as Chasers, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Willson Contreras has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Chaser 8%

+2%

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Weak Challenge 9%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Likely Ball 20%

+0%

Edge Painter 17%

+0%

Strong Challenge 5%

Meatball 4%

-2%

Non-Competitive 8%

-4%

25% of Pablo Lopez's pitches are classified as Offspeed Pitches, which is 14% higher than the MLB average. Willson Contreras has a D+ grade against this type of pitch from right handers.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Offspeed (R) 25%

+14%

Extreme Break 26%

+11%

Fast Velo 26%

+11%

16.1% of Willson Contreras's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.6% higher than the league average. Pablo Lopez strikes out 18.7% of the batters he faces, which is 4.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +2.6% +4.2% 3%

Walk +3.8% -2.5% 42%

In Play -6.3% -1.7% 39%

On Base +4.9% -2.2% 31%

Hit +1.1% +0.3% 14%

Single -0.3% +0.4% 13%

2B / 3B +0.2% +0.2% 3%

Home Run +1.2% -0.3%

40.9% of Willson Contreras's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 6.4% higher than the league average. Pablo Lopez induces Standard Grounders at a 38.2% rate, which is 3.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.5% -0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder +6.4% +3.7% 7%

Hard Grounder +0.5% -1.4% 14%

Low Screamer -1.0% +1.5% 9%

Rising Liner -1.4% -0.8% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.1% -0.9% 3%

Likely Homer +0.4% -0.1% 1%

No Doubter +0.5% -0.6% 20%

Routine Flyout -4.8% -0.9% 3%

Pop up -0.1% -0.5%

32.2% of Willson Contreras's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 7.9% higher than the league average. 22.1% of batted balls allowed by Pablo Lopez are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.2% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph 0.0% +0.9% 21%

75 to 86 mph -0.8% +3.5% 18%

87 to 93 mph -2.1% -0.5% 19%

94 to 99 mph -4.9% -1.6% 24%

Above 100 mph +7.9% -2.2%

8.4% of Willson Contreras's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 3.1% lower than the league average. 10.5% of batted balls allowed by Pablo Lopez are hit at this angle, which is 0.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +3.7% +2.9% 12%

-10 to 0° +1.4% +0.7% 8%

1 to 6° +0.5% -1.1% 18%

7 to 18° -0.5% -1.0% 15%

19 to 28° -0.2% +0.1% 11%

29 to 38° -3.1% -0.9% 7%

39 to 50° -0.4% +0.0% 8%

Above 50° -1.4% -0.7%

Willson Contreras has 10 plate appearances against Pablo Lopez in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 10 with 4 strikeouts.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	10	10	1	0	0	1	4	0	0.100
Expected From Contact →			1.43	0.00	0.28	1.15			0.143

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2025-03-27	Strikeout
2025-03-27	Strikeout
2025-03-27	Lineout
2024-08-24	Lineout		18%	34%	48%
2024-08-24	Hit By Pitch
2023-08-01	Strikeout
2023-08-01	Groundout		3%	19%	78%
2022-08-06	Groundout			2%	98%
2022-08-06	Strikeout
2022-08-06	Single		7%	60%	33%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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